Patriot League Tournament Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Each game of the Patriot League tournament is played at the home site of the higher seeded team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Patriot League tournament begins on March 3.

Quarterfinals Semifinals Final Champion
1   Bucknell 100.0 74.3 54.8 37.3
2   Colgate 100.0 84.2 63.6 34.3
3   Lehigh 100.0 64.7 19.6 8.7
5   Boston U. 100.0 39.9 20.4 6.6
4   Lafayette 100.0 61.0 19.6 5.7
6   American 100.0 36.2 10.9 4.8
8   Holy Cross 79.9 21.2 7.1 1.7
7   Navy 68.6 11.4 2.6 0.7
10   Army 31.4 4.4 0.9 0.2
9   Loyola (MD) 20.1 2.8 0.5 0.06


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Horizon League Tournament Win Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. The first round games (for seeds 5-8) of the Horizon League tournament are played at the home site of the higher seeded team. The quarterfinals and semifinals are hosted by the 1-seed (Valparaiso). The championship game is played at the home site of the highest remaining seed team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Horizon League tournament begins on March 3.

Quarterfinal Semifinals Final Champion
1   Valparaiso 100.0 100.0 72.6 50.2
2   Green Bay 100.0 100.0 87.0 39.8
4   Cleveland State 100.0 85.2 24.9 7.3
3   Oakland 100.0 85.2 12.7 2.4
5   Detroit 78.3 12.3 1.8 0.2
7   Wright State 45.0 8.2 0.5 0.05
6   Illinois-Chicago 55.0 7.3 0.3 0.02
8   Youngstown St. 21.7 1.8 0.1 0.01


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Atlantic Sun Tournament Win Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Each game of the Atlantic Sun tournament is played at the home site of the higher seed team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Atlantic Sun tournament begins on March 3.

Semifinals Final Champion
1   North Florida 94.7 81.6 65.5
2   Florida Gulf Coast 91.3 64.0 18.4
3   USC-Upstate 92.2 33.7 9.2
4   Northern Kentucky 83.4 17.1 5.1
5   Lipscomb 16.6 1.4 1.7
7   Jacksonville 8.7 0.9 0.06
8   Stetson 5.3 0.6 0.06
6   Kennesaw State 7.8 0.6 0.02


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Conference Tournament Probabilities Coming Soon

Good news everyone. It’s March. And that means the madness is fast approaching. The first of the conference tournaments gets underway this week and prior to the start of each tournament, we’ll be posting our estimated probabilities of each team advancing to each round of their conference tournament. For some teams, the only way into the ‘Big Dance’ is to win the conference tournament. For others, a deep run in the conference tournament might be the ticket to an at-large bid in the field of 68. For teams on the bubble, an unlikely mid-major conference tournament champion who steals a bid could be the difference between the NCAA tournament and the NIT. Whoever your team and whatever their tournament prospects, you can use these probabilities to determine the likelihood of advancement from round to round for each team in every conference tournament. Stay tuned.



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PickHoops launches BracketAdvice

Millions of people fill out college basketball brackets every March. Nearly all of them are quickly busted. In perhaps no other human activity do so many people make so many uninformed and unsuccessful predictions.

How can BracketAdvice help?

We’ve got our own team ratings model that accounts for teams’ offensive and defensive performances, the quality of the teams those performances were against, and when those games were played. We use these ratings as the basis for our predictions.

We’ve also been running PickHoops.com since 1996.  Over the years we’ve tracked over 750,000 brackets from tiny groups to giant corporate promotions  With this much data we can try to answer some interesting questions.

What’s common among pool winners year over year?  What strategies work for smaller pools versus larger pools?  Are people biased towards local teams, and does picking against local teams really work?  What are common bracket errors?

We can’t promise you’ll win your pool because of BracketAdvice, but that won’t be for lack of trying.  We can promise strategies based on data and some fun insights along the way.



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