Big South Conference Tournament Probabilities

The top five teams all finished within one game of the regular season title and have comparable probabilities of grabbing an automatic berth in the NCAA tournament by winning the conference tournament. The Big South tournament will be hosted by Coastal Carolina and played in the HTC Center in Conway, South Carolina giving the Chanticleers a slight bump and the second best odds of winning the Big South championship. The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Big South tournament begins on March 4.

Quarterfinals Semifinals Final Champion
2   High Point 100.0 70.7 44.3 28.4
3   Coastal Carolina 100.0 65.5 30.2 17.2
5   Winthrop 100.0 55.0 35.9 16.9
1   Charleston Southern 100.0 80.8 35.2 13.0
4   Radford 100.0 47.0 28.8 12.4
6   UNC-Asheville 80.3 29.4 11.4 7.5
7   Gardner-Webb 64.0 20.0 8.1 3.6
10   Campbell 36.0 7.4 2.0 0.6
9   Longwood 57.0 13.5 2.4 0.3
8   Presbyterian 43.0 8.1 1.1 0.1
11   Liberty 19.7 2.5 0.4 0.001


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OVC Tournament Probabilities

Murray State won the regular season title by a whopping six games and, not surprisingly, is the favorite to win the OVC tournament. Each game of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament is played at the Nashville Auditorium (neutral site). The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The OVC tournament begins on March 4.

1st Rd Semifinals Finals Champion
1   Murray State 100.0 100.0 82.1 66.2
2   Eastern Kentucky 100.0 100.0 61.3 17.4
3   Belmont 100.0 62.8 25.7 5.5
5   Morehead State 71.7 42.8 10.1 5.1
4   Tennessee-Martin 100.0 45.0 8.4 3.6
6   Eastern Illinois 56.2 23.6 7.5 1.1
7   SIU-Edwardsville 43.8 15.7 4.1 0.5
8   Southeast Missouri 28.3 10.2 1.0 0.3


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Patriot League Tournament Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Each game of the Patriot League tournament is played at the home site of the higher seeded team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Patriot League tournament begins on March 3.

Quarterfinals Semifinals Final Champion
1   Bucknell 100.0 74.3 54.8 37.3
2   Colgate 100.0 84.2 63.6 34.3
3   Lehigh 100.0 64.7 19.6 8.7
5   Boston U. 100.0 39.9 20.4 6.6
4   Lafayette 100.0 61.0 19.6 5.7
6   American 100.0 36.2 10.9 4.8
8   Holy Cross 79.9 21.2 7.1 1.7
7   Navy 68.6 11.4 2.6 0.7
10   Army 31.4 4.4 0.9 0.2
9   Loyola (MD) 20.1 2.8 0.5 0.06


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Horizon League Tournament Win Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. The first round games (for seeds 5-8) of the Horizon League tournament are played at the home site of the higher seeded team. The quarterfinals and semifinals are hosted by the 1-seed (Valparaiso). The championship game is played at the home site of the highest remaining seed team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Horizon League tournament begins on March 3.

Quarterfinal Semifinals Final Champion
1   Valparaiso 100.0 100.0 72.6 50.2
2   Green Bay 100.0 100.0 87.0 39.8
4   Cleveland State 100.0 85.2 24.9 7.3
3   Oakland 100.0 85.2 12.7 2.4
5   Detroit 78.3 12.3 1.8 0.2
7   Wright State 45.0 8.2 0.5 0.05
6   Illinois-Chicago 55.0 7.3 0.3 0.02
8   Youngstown St. 21.7 1.8 0.1 0.01


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Atlantic Sun Tournament Win Probabilities

The numbers in this table are the probabilities that a team will advance to each round of the tournament. Each game of the Atlantic Sun tournament is played at the home site of the higher seed team. Numbers to the left of team names indicate tournament seed. The Atlantic Sun tournament begins on March 3.

Semifinals Final Champion
1   North Florida 94.7 81.6 65.5
2   Florida Gulf Coast 91.3 64.0 18.4
3   USC-Upstate 92.2 33.7 9.2
4   Northern Kentucky 83.4 17.1 5.1
5   Lipscomb 16.6 1.4 1.7
7   Jacksonville 8.7 0.9 0.06
8   Stetson 5.3 0.6 0.06
6   Kennesaw State 7.8 0.6 0.02


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Conference Tournament Probabilities Coming Soon

Good news everyone. It’s March. And that means the madness is fast approaching. The first of the conference tournaments gets underway this week and prior to the start of each tournament, we’ll be posting our estimated probabilities of each team advancing to each round of their conference tournament. For some teams, the only way into the ‘Big Dance’ is to win the conference tournament. For others, a deep run in the conference tournament might be the ticket to an at-large bid in the field of 68. For teams on the bubble, an unlikely mid-major conference tournament champion who steals a bid could be the difference between the NCAA tournament and the NIT. Whoever your team and whatever their tournament prospects, you can use these probabilities to determine the likelihood of advancement from round to round for each team in every conference tournament. Stay tuned.



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