2016 Tournament Overview

South

The first round favorites look pretty safe in the South, with the notable exceptions of Arizona as a tossup against the Vanderbilt/Wichita State winner, and Connecticut as a clear upset winner against the “favored” 8-seeded Colorado. From there the bottom half of this bracket is up for grabs, and Maryland/California should be close as well.

Kansas is as close to a favorite as there is in this tournament, but they were paired against a brutally strong #2 in Villanova. Either is a very reasonable pick to win the region.

West

Once again our model shows the #9 seed as the clearly better team, Cincinnati over St. Joe’s. We also show the #10 seed VCU as an expected upset. If you’re looking for a #12 seed Cinderella, Yale could surprise against Baylor. In the second round, top-seed Oregon is a tossup to beat the 8/9 winner and if they do they’ll likely fall in the next game.

This region is as wide open as it gets. We’ve got Oklahoma as the most likely team to advance, but Duke, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and even the top seed Oregon are all very reasonable picks.

East

The two clearest first round upset chances here are the 11-seeded Michigan/Tulsa winner against 6-seed Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh against 7-seed Wisconsin. 2-seed Xavier is in trouble in the 2nd round against the Pittsburgh/Wisconsin winner.

North Carolina and West Virginia are most likely to win this region, though the Kentucky/Indiana winner could give UNC a scare.

Midwest

We like Gonzaga to exceed their seed and upset 6-seed Seton Hall, and even though Syracuse is getting a lot of heat for getting in the tournament, our model has them upsetting 7-seed Dayton.

We like Michigan State to win this region over Virginia with Purdue as a potential darkhorse.

Final Four

Our model has no clear favorite, with Michigan State, Kansas, and Virginia as the top of a bunched pack. Villanova, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and North Carolina all have reasonable chances to win the championship this year.

So who do you pick? Any of those are fine choices. This isn’t a bad year to try a #2 seed in Michigan State in many pools. If you need a deep longshot, 5-seed Purdue is the most likely high-seed to surprise.



Share on
 twitter

2016 Odds of Advancing

Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2016 men’s tournament.

South
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Kansas 97.9%
Austin Peay 2.1%
Kansas 70.5%
Connecticut 25.2%
Colorado 4.2%
Kansas 50.3%
Maryland 20.8%
Connecticut 14.0%
California 11.6%
Hawaii 1.6%
Colorado 1.3%
Kansas 31.7%
Villanova 20.7%
Miami (Fla.) 11.8%
Maryland 9.6%
Connecticut 6.4%
Iowa 5.9%
California 4.6%
Arizona 4.6%
Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 3.7%
Connecticut 74.0%
Colorado 26.0%
Maryland 84.4%
South Dakota State 15.6%
Maryland 52.6%
California 34.5%
Hawaii 9.1%
South Dakota State 3.8%
California 70.3%
Hawaii 29.7%
Arizona 51.8%
Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 48.2%
Miami (Fla.) 50.9%
Arizona 25.1%
Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 22.5%
Buffalo 1.4%
Villanova 38.6%
Miami (Fla.) 25.2%
Iowa 14.5%
Arizona 10.9%
Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 9.5%
Temple 1.0%
Miami (Fla.) 89.5%
Buffalo 10.5%
Iowa 76.1%
Temple 23.9%
Villanova 63.6%
Iowa 30.7%
Temple 4.6%
North Carolina-Asheville 1.1%
Villanova 93.0%
North Carolina-Asheville 7.0%

West
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Oregon 96.6%
HolyCross/Southern 3.4%
Oregon 50.5%
Cincinnati 41.3%
Saint Joseph’s 8.1%
Duke 27.8%
Oregon 25.6%
Cincinnati 22.7%
Baylor 16.3%
Yale 4.3%
Saint Joseph’s 2.4%
Oklahoma 23.9%
Duke 15.6%
Oregon 13.1%
Texas A&M 13.0%
Cincinnati 12.5%
Baylor 8.3%
Texas 6.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 3.4%
Yale 1.6%
Cincinnati 74.2%
Saint Joseph’s 25.8%
Baylor 65.3%
Yale 34.7%
Duke 50.5%
Baylor 32.9%
Yale 12.6%
North Carolina-Wilmington 4.0%
Duke 83.3%
North Carolina-Wilmington 16.7%
Texas 70.8%
Northern Iowa 29.2%
Texas A&M 54.7%
Texas 34.7%
Northern Iowa 8.8%
Green Bay 1.8%
Oklahoma 42.2%
Texas A&M 27.2%
Texas 15.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 9.6%
Oregon State 2.4%
Northern Iowa 2.3%
Texas A&M 89.4%
Green Bay 10.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 65.1%
Oregon State 34.9%
Oklahoma 66.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 22.5%
Oregon State 8.2%
Cal State Bakersfield 2.8%
Oklahoma 89.4%
Cal State Bakersfield 10.6%

East
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
North Carolina 95.3%
FGCU/F Dickinson 4.7%
North Carolina 71.9%
Providence 14.1%
Southern California 13.4%
North Carolina 40.3%
Indiana 26.9%
Kentucky 23.3%
Providence 4.3%
Southern California 4.0%
North Carolina 23.9%
West Virginia 22.8%
Indiana 15.0%
Kentucky 12.8%
Xavier 9.0%
Wisconsin 3.8%
Pittsburgh 3.3%
Michigan/Tulsa 3.2%
Notre Dame 2.9%
Providence 1.4%
Southern California 1.3%
Providence 50.8%
Southern California 49.2%
Indiana 87.9%
Chattanooga 12.1%
Indiana 49.9%
Kentucky 44.1%
Stony Brook 3.9%
Chattanooga 2.1%
Kentucky 82.3%
Stony Brook 17.7%
Michigan/Tulsa 50.8%
Notre Dame 49.2%
West Virginia 58.9%
Michigan/Tulsa 18.3%
Notre Dame 17.4%
Stephen F. Austin 5.3%
West Virginia 40.2%
Xavier 21.5%
Wisconsin 10.3%
Pittsburgh 9.3%
Michigan/Tulsa 8.7%
Notre Dame 8.2%
Stephen F. Austin 1.6%
West Virginia 83.5%
Stephen F. Austin 16.5%
Wisconsin 51.3%
Pittsburgh 48.7%
Xavier 48.2%
Wisconsin 25.7%
Pittsburgh 23.9%
Weber State 2.1%
Xavier 86.9%
Weber State 13.1%

Midwest
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Virginia 98.9%
Hampton 1.1%
Virginia 75.2%
Butler 14.3%
Texas Tech 10.4%
Virginia 45.2%
Purdue 32.9%
Iowa State 11.3%
Butler 5.1%
Texas Tech 3.3%
Arkansas-Little Rock 1.4%
Michigan State 37.3%
Virginia 24.7%
Purdue 17.6%
Iowa State 4.2%
Gonzaga 3.7%
Utah 3.7%
Seton Hall 2.9%
Syracuse 1.9%
Butler 1.6%
Butler 54.8%
Texas Tech 45.2%
Purdue 82.6%
Arkansas-Little Rock 17.4%
Purdue 59.7%
Iowa State 29.6%
Arkansas-Little Rock 6.5%
Iona 4.2%
Iowa State 76.4%
Iona 23.6%
Gonzaga 52.3%
Seton Hall 47.7%
Utah 37.5%
Gonzaga 31.3%
Seton Hall 27.5%
Fresno State 3.7%
Michigan State 59.7%
Utah 11.1%
Gonzaga 10.2%
Seton Hall 8.5%
Syracuse 6.2%
Dayton 3.6%
Utah 79.7%
Fresno State 20.3%
Syracuse 55.9%
Dayton 44.1%
Michigan State 76.9%
Syracuse 13.2%
Dayton 8.8%
Middle Tennessee 1.1%
Michigan State 94.5%
Middle Tennessee 5.5%

Final Four
Semifinals National Championship Game
Kansas 21.4%
Villanova 12.8%
Oklahoma 11.5%
Duke 7.1%
Miami (Fla.) 6.5%
Cincinnati 5.6%
Oregon 5.4%
Texas A&M 5.1%
Maryland 4.9%
Baylor 3.4%
Connecticut 3.2%
Iowa 2.8%
Arizona 2.2%
Texas 2.2%
California 2.1%
Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 1.7%
Michigan State 16.2%
Kansas 12.2%
Virginia 8.9%
Villanova 6.5%
West Virginia 6.3%
Purdue 6.0%
North Carolina 6.0%
Oklahoma 5.2%
Indiana 3.3%
Duke 3.0%
Miami (Fla.) 2.8%
Kentucky 2.7%
Cincinnati 2.4%
Oregon 2.0%
Maryland 2.0%
Texas A&M 1.8%
Xavier 1.3%
Connecticut 1.3%
Baylor 1.3%
Iowa 1.1%
Michigan State 25.1%
Virginia 14.9%
West Virginia 11.1%
North Carolina 11.1%
Purdue 10.4%
Indiana 6.5%
Kentucky 5.4%
Xavier 3.1%
Iowa State 1.7%
Gonzaga 1.5%
Utah 1.4%
Wisconsin 1.2%
Seton Hall 1.1%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



Share on
 twitter

Odds of Advancing Based on Tournament Seed

In an earlier post, we discussed how many wins each seed line has accumulated in each round of the tournament since 1985. Here, we examine those data a bit more and explore the historical odds a team advancing to and winning a game in each round of the tournament.

Percentage of Seeds That Advance From Each Round (1985-2014)
Seed Round 1 Round 2 Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four National Champion
1 100.0% 86.7% 68.3% 40.0% 22.5% 15.0%
2 94.2% 64.2% 46.7% 21.7% 10.0% 3.3%
3 85.0% 50.0% 25.0% 11.7% 7.5% 3.3%
4 79.2% 45.0% 15.8% 10.8% 2.5% 0.8%
5 63.3% 32.5% 6.7% 5.0% 2.5%
6 65.8% 34.2% 10.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8%
7 60.8% 16.7% 6.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
8 49.2% 9.2% 6.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.8%
9 50.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.8%
10 39.2% 19.2% 5.8%
11 32.0% 13.3% 4.7% 2.3%
12 34.4% 15.6% 0.8%
13 20.8% 5.0%
14 15.0% 1.7%
15 5.8% 0.8%
16

 



Share on
 twitter

2015 Sweet 16 Odds

Here are our updated odds of each team advancing from the Sweet 16 through the championship game.

Regional Semis Regional Champion Semifinals Championship
Kentucky 89.6%
West Virginia 10.4%
Kentucky 75.2%
Notre Dame 13.4%
Wichita State 7.5%
West Virginia 3.9%
Kentucky 50.7%
Arizona 20.7%
Wisconsin 18.2%
Notre Dame 4.3%
North Carolina 2.8%
Wichita State 1.9%
West Virginia 0.8%
Xavier 0.6%
Kentucky 38.4%
Arizona 13.1%
Duke 11.7%
Wisconsin 11.6%
Gonzaga 6.7%
Utah 6.6%
Louisville 3.5%
Michigan State 1.9%
Oklahoma 1.9%
Notre Dame 1.8%
North Carolina 1.2%
Wichita State 0.7%
North Carolina State 0.4%
West Virginia 0.2%
Xavier 0.2%
UCLA 0.1%
Notre Dame 58.4%
Wichita State 41.6%
Wisconsin 71.3%
North Carolina 28.7%
Arizona 46.1%
Wisconsin 40.2%
North Carolina 10.2%
Xavier 3.5%
Arizona 83.3%
Xavier 16.7%
Louisville 66.6%
North Carolina State 33.4%
Louisville 36.6%
Michigan State 25.4%
Oklahoma 25.3%
North Carolina State 12.7%
Duke 27.4%
Gonzaga 20.9%
Utah 18.0%
Louisville 13.6%
Oklahoma 8.3%
Michigan State 8.3%
North Carolina State 2.9%
UCLA 0.6%
Michigan State 50.1%
Oklahoma 49.9%
Duke 56.3%
Utah 43.7%
Duke 37.5%
Gonzaga 33.5%
Utah 26.6%
UCLA 2.4%
Gonzaga 82.0%
UCLA 18.0%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



Share on
 twitter

2015 Tournament Overview

Midwest

The first two rounds of the Midwest look to be the most interesting of any region.  We have 11 seed Texas as 56% likely to pull off the upset over 6 seed Butler and the Longhorns have a decent chance to advance over Notre Dame in the 2nd round.  Buffalo is the 12 seed to watch this tournament — their game against West Virginia is nearly a tossup, and Buffalo is the only 12 seed we show as having a reasonable chance to make the Sweet 16 (19.2%).

In the later rounds of the Midwest, Kansas is not much better than a tossup against Notre Dame in the 3rd round, and Butler has an outside shot if they survive Texas.  Kentucky is far and away the safest pick for a regional champion.

West

Ohio State is our most likely upset of the first round this year, with a 70% chance of beating 7 seed VCU.  Oklahoma State has the best chance among 9 seeds to win a game, and 6 seed Xavier is barely even money against the BYU / Ole Miss play-in winner.

Wisconsin and Arizona have reasonably clear paths to the regional finals, with only UNC and Baylor likely to give them any kind of test.  We have Wisconsin as 44% likely to win the region, with Arizona close behind at 30%.

East

The East region will likely be light on upsets in the first round, with only 6 seed Providence at a high risk of falling to the Boise State / Dayton winner.  In the second round, Louisville is even matched again Northern Iowa in a pairing of 4 and 5 seeds.  Oklahoma is unlikely to see a test while advancing to the Sweet 16.

Villanova and Virginia have very good chances to advance, and we show that Virginia is a slight favorite to advance, and has the best chance among 2 seeds to reach the Final Four and the championship game.

South

No upsets are likely in the first round of the South – all the 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds are all decent favorites according to our model.  5 seed Utah is a solid favorite to advance to the Sweet 16.

The later rounds of the South are a different story. Duke is the 1 seed at most risk in our model and has no better than a 1 in 3 chance to win its region, and 3 seed Iowa State has a chance to muddy the waters in the regional semis. Gonzaga and Utah will both be in the mix for the regional title.

Final Four

Virginia, Villanova, and Duke are all solid contenders to advance to the title game. Kentucky may face its toughest test in the semifinals against Wisconsin — the 2nd most likely to win according to our model.  Arizona also has a reasonable outside chance to advance.

All that said, Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the championship this year.



Share on
 twitter