2015 Sweet 16 Odds

Here are our updated odds of each team advancing from the Sweet 16 through the championship game.

Regional Semis Regional Champion Semifinals Championship
Kentucky 89.6%
West Virginia 10.4%
Kentucky 75.2%
Notre Dame 13.4%
Wichita State 7.5%
West Virginia 3.9%
Kentucky 50.7%
Arizona 20.7%
Wisconsin 18.2%
Notre Dame 4.3%
North Carolina 2.8%
Wichita State 1.9%
West Virginia 0.8%
Xavier 0.6%
Kentucky 38.4%
Arizona 13.1%
Duke 11.7%
Wisconsin 11.6%
Gonzaga 6.7%
Utah 6.6%
Louisville 3.5%
Michigan State 1.9%
Oklahoma 1.9%
Notre Dame 1.8%
North Carolina 1.2%
Wichita State 0.7%
North Carolina State 0.4%
West Virginia 0.2%
Xavier 0.2%
UCLA 0.1%
Notre Dame 58.4%
Wichita State 41.6%
Wisconsin 71.3%
North Carolina 28.7%
Arizona 46.1%
Wisconsin 40.2%
North Carolina 10.2%
Xavier 3.5%
Arizona 83.3%
Xavier 16.7%
Louisville 66.6%
North Carolina State 33.4%
Louisville 36.6%
Michigan State 25.4%
Oklahoma 25.3%
North Carolina State 12.7%
Duke 27.4%
Gonzaga 20.9%
Utah 18.0%
Louisville 13.6%
Oklahoma 8.3%
Michigan State 8.3%
North Carolina State 2.9%
UCLA 0.6%
Michigan State 50.1%
Oklahoma 49.9%
Duke 56.3%
Utah 43.7%
Duke 37.5%
Gonzaga 33.5%
Utah 26.6%
UCLA 2.4%
Gonzaga 82.0%
UCLA 18.0%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



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2015 Tournament Overview

Midwest

The first two rounds of the Midwest look to be the most interesting of any region.  We have 11 seed Texas as 56% likely to pull off the upset over 6 seed Butler and the Longhorns have a decent chance to advance over Notre Dame in the 2nd round.  Buffalo is the 12 seed to watch this tournament — their game against West Virginia is nearly a tossup, and Buffalo is the only 12 seed we show as having a reasonable chance to make the Sweet 16 (19.2%).

In the later rounds of the Midwest, Kansas is not much better than a tossup against Notre Dame in the 3rd round, and Butler has an outside shot if they survive Texas.  Kentucky is far and away the safest pick for a regional champion.

West

Ohio State is our most likely upset of the first round this year, with a 70% chance of beating 7 seed VCU.  Oklahoma State has the best chance among 9 seeds to win a game, and 6 seed Xavier is barely even money against the BYU / Ole Miss play-in winner.

Wisconsin and Arizona have reasonably clear paths to the regional finals, with only UNC and Baylor likely to give them any kind of test.  We have Wisconsin as 44% likely to win the region, with Arizona close behind at 30%.

East

The East region will likely be light on upsets in the first round, with only 6 seed Providence at a high risk of falling to the Boise State / Dayton winner.  In the second round, Louisville is even matched again Northern Iowa in a pairing of 4 and 5 seeds.  Oklahoma is unlikely to see a test while advancing to the Sweet 16.

Villanova and Virginia have very good chances to advance, and we show that Virginia is a slight favorite to advance, and has the best chance among 2 seeds to reach the Final Four and the championship game.

South

No upsets are likely in the first round of the South – all the 5, 6, 7, and 8 seeds are all decent favorites according to our model.  5 seed Utah is a solid favorite to advance to the Sweet 16.

The later rounds of the South are a different story. Duke is the 1 seed at most risk in our model and has no better than a 1 in 3 chance to win its region, and 3 seed Iowa State has a chance to muddy the waters in the regional semis. Gonzaga and Utah will both be in the mix for the regional title.

Final Four

Virginia, Villanova, and Duke are all solid contenders to advance to the title game. Kentucky may face its toughest test in the semifinals against Wisconsin — the 2nd most likely to win according to our model.  Arizona also has a reasonable outside chance to advance.

All that said, Kentucky is the prohibitive favorite to win the championship this year.



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Odds of each team advancing

Here are the BracketAdvice odds for each team advancing to each round of the 2015 tournament. Teams with a low chance of advancing are not listed.

Midwest
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Kentucky 97.9%
Manhattan / Hampton 2.1%
Kentucky 88.5%
Cincinnati 6.7%
Purdue 4.4%
Kentucky 79.9%
Maryland 7.8%
West Virginia 3.9%
Cincinnati 3.5%
Buffalo 2.2%
Purdue 2.1%
Kentucky 66.5%
Kansas 10.0%
Notre Dame 6.9%
Wichita State 4.7%
Maryland 3.2%
Texas 2.5%
West Virginia 1.4%
Cincinnati 1.3%
Butler 1.3%
Cincinnati 55.7%
Purdue 44.3%
West Virginia 56.4%
Buffalo 43.6%
Maryland 45.9%
West Virginia 28.1%
Buffalo 19.2%
Valparaiso 6.8%
Maryland 77.4%
Valparaiso 22.6%
Texas 56.4%
Butler 43.6%
Notre Dame 52.8%
Texas 27.0%
Butler 18.3%
Northeastern 1.9%
Kansas 32.7%
Notre Dame 26.3%
Wichita State 18.1%
Texas 11.6%
Butler 6.7%
Indiana 3.6%
Notre Dame 88.4%
Northeastern 11.6%
Wichita State 68.6%
Indiana 31.4%
Kansas 53.3%
Wichita State 33.3%
Indiana 9.9%
New Mexico State 3.4%
Kansas 85.3%
New Mexico State 14.7%

West
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Wisconsin 97.3%
Coastal Carolina 2.7%
Wisconsin 86.9%
Oklahoma State 8.3%
Oregon 4.3%
Wisconsin 67.5%
North Carolina 22.5%
Arkansas 4.5%
Oklahoma State 2.9%
Oregon 1.2%
Wisconsin 44.2%
Arizona 30.0%
North Carolina 10.2%
Baylor 7.7%
Ohio State 3.7%
Arkansas 1.1%
Oklahoma State 59.2%
Oregon 40.8%
Arkansas 73.9%
Wofford 26.1%
North Carolina 63.9%
Arkansas 24.4%
Harvard 7.5%
Wofford 4.2%
North Carolina 82.6%
Harvard 17.4%
Xavier 52.2%
BYU / Ole Miss 47.8%
Baylor 55.8%
Xavier 18.4%
BYU / Ole Miss 16.0%
Georgia State 9.8%
Arizona 56.7%
Baylor 21.4%
Ohio State 11.5%
Xavier 3.8%
BYU / Ole Miss 3.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 1.7%
Georgia State 1.6%
Baylor 77.3%
Georgia State 22.7%
Ohio State 69.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 30.1%
Arizona 74.8%
Ohio State 20.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 4.7%
Arizona 98.5%
Texas Southern 1.5%

East
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Villanova 97.2%
Lafayette 2.8%
Villanova 80.6%
North Carolina State 13.9%
Louisiana State 5.2%
Villanova 61.2%
Louisville 15.4%
Northern Iowa 14.8%
North Carolina State 6.2%
Louisiana State 1.7%
Virginia 38.6%
Villanova 34.7%
Oklahoma 8.6%
Louisville 5.1%
Northern Iowa 4.9%
Michigan State 4.0%
North Carolina State 1.7%
North Carolina State 63.6%
Louisiana State 36.4%
Northern Iowa 82.6%
Wyoming 17.4%
Louisville 46.8%
Northern Iowa 45.6%
Wyoming 4.0%
California-Irvine 3.7%
Louisville 83.6%
California-Irvine 16.4%
Providence 53.2%
Boise St. / Dayton 46.8%
Oklahoma 64.4%
Providence 18.7%
Boise St. / Dayton 15.4%
Albany 1.6%
Virginia 60.0%
Oklahoma 21.3%
Michigan State 10.2%
Providence 3.5%
Boise St. / Dayton 2.7%
Georgia 2.2%
Oklahoma 91.4%
Albany 8.6%
Michigan State 66.7%
Georgia 33.3%
Virginia 76.0%
Michigan State 18.1%
Georgia 5.5%
Virginia 96.7%
Belmont 3.3%

South
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Duke 96.2%
N.Florida / Robert Morris 3.8%
Duke 80.4%
San Diego State 11.7%
Saint John’s 7.2%
Duke 51.1%
Utah 31.7%
Georgetown 10.4%
San Diego State 3.4%
Saint John’s 1.7%
Stephen F. Austin 1.4%
Duke 33.1%
Gonzaga 22.7%
Utah 19.1%
Iowa State 10.2%
Iowa 4.6%
Georgetown 4.1%
Southern Methodist 3.2%
San Diego State 1.0%
San Diego State 57.1%
Saint John’s 42.9%
Utah 82.9%
Stephen F. Austin 17.1%
Utah 60.8%
Georgetown 31.7%
Stephen F. Austin 6.6%
Georgetown 88.7%
Eastern Washington 11.3%
Southern Methodist 67.1%
UCLA 32.9%
Iowa State 57.2%
Southern Methodist 30.2%
UCLA 9.9%
UAB 2.7%
Gonzaga 44.8%
Iowa State 25.8%
Iowa 13.0%
Southern Methodist 10.7%
Davidson 3.2%
UCLA 2.1%
Iowa State 87.6%
UAB 12.4%
Iowa 66.0%
Davidson 34.0%
Gonzaga 65.9%
Iowa 24.7%
Davidson 8.5%
Gonzaga 93.7%
North Dakota State 6.3%

Final Four
Semifinals National Championship Game
Kentucky 44.9%
Wisconsin 23.2%
Arizona 14.2%
Kansas 3.7%
North Carolina 3.5%
Baylor 2.5%
Notre Dame 2.2%
Wichita State 1.5%
Ohio State 1.1%
Kentucky 31.9%
Wisconsin 14.4%
Virginia 12.0%
Villanova 9.2%
Arizona 8.0%
Duke 7.1%
Gonzaga 3.6%
Utah 3.4%
Kansas 1.5%
North Carolina 1.4%
Virginia 24.9%
Villanova 21.0%
Duke 17.2%
Gonzaga 10.5%
Utah 9.1%
Iowa State 3.6%
Oklahoma 3.5%
Louisville 1.8%
Northern Iowa 1.7%
Michigan State 1.6%
Iowa 1.4%
Georgetown 1.2%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes. Teams with less than 1% chance of advancing are not listed.



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Conference Tournament Game Predictions (March 15)

Below are our predicted scores and win probabilities for all conference tournament games played on Sunday, March 15, 2015.

Previous record: 121-41; Today’s record: 5-0

 

Dayton – 66, VCU – 67 (VCU 55%)

SMU – 65, UConn – 64 (SMU 55%)

Wisconsin – 63, Michigan St. – 57 (Wisconsin 74%)

Kentucky – 77, Arkansas – 62 (Kentucky 91%)

Georgia St. – 70, Georgia Southern – 63 (Georgia St. 75%)

 



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Conference Tournament Game Predictions (March 14)

Below are our predicted scores and win probabilities for all conference tournament games played on Saturday, March 14, 2015.

Previous record: 102-35; Today’s record: 19-6

 

ACC

Notre Dame – 75, North Carolina – 76 (UNC 51%)

 

America East

Albany – 68, Stony Brook – 65 (Albany 61%)

 

American

SMU – 67, Temple – 61 (SMU 72%)

Tulsa – 61, Connecticut – 64 (UConn 63%)

 

Atlantic 10

Davidson – 77, VCU – 76 (Davidson 55%)

Dayton – 63, Rhode Island – 61 (Dayton 59%)

 

Big 12

Kansas – 74, Iowa St. – 73 (Kansas 51%)

 

Big East

Villanova – 72, Xavier – 64 (Villanova 79%)

 

Big Sky

Montana – 74, Eastern Washington – 71 (Montana 62%)

 

Big Ten

Wisconsin – 66, Purdue – 57 (Wisconsin 82%)

Maryland – 62, Michigan St. – 65 (Michigan St. 64%)

 

Big West

UC- Irvine – 69, Hawaii – 68 (UC-Irvine 50%)

 

C-USA

UAB – 67, Middle Tennessee – 63 (UAB 66%)

 

Ivy

Harvard – 61, Yale – 60 (Harvard 51%)

 

MEAC

Delaware St. – 78, Hampton – 79 (Hampton 52%)

 

MAC

Buffalo – 73, Central Michigan – 71 (Buffalo 57%)

 

Mountain West

San Diego St. – 57, Wyoming – 53 (San Diego St. 69%)

 

PAC-12

Arizona – 75, Oregon – 63 (Arizona 86%)

 

SEC

Kentucky – 80, Auburn – 54 (Kentucky 98%)

Arkansas – 72, Georgia – 73 (Georgia 51%)

 

Southland

Stephen F. Austin – 66, Sam Houston St. – 65 (Stephen F. Austin 56%)

 

Sun Belt

Georgia St. – 76, Louisiana-Lafayette – 70 (Georgia St. 69%)

Georgia Southern – 62, Louisiana-Monroe – 61 (Georgia Southern 53%)

 

SWAC

Southern – 71, Texas Southern – 73 (Texas Southern 58%)

 

WAC

New Mexico St. – 69, Seattle – 59 (New Mexico St. 84%)



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Conference Tournament Game Predictions (March 13)

Below are our predicted scores and win probabilities for all conference tournament games played on Friday, March 13, 2015.

Yesterday’s record: 49-11; Today’s record: 28-16

 

ACC

Virginia – 62, North Carolina – 60 (Virginia 59%)

Duke – 81, Notre Dame – 73 (Duke 73%)

 

American

East Carolina – 56, SMU – 71 (SMU 92%)

Temple – 62, Memphis – 61 (Temple 51%)

Tulsa – 68, Houston – 59 (Tulsa 68%)

Cincinnati – 58, UConn – 57 (Cincinnati 53%)

 

Atlantic 10

Davidson – 73, La Salle – 65 (Davidson 78%)

Richmond – 63, VCU – 62 (Richmond 51%)

Dayton – 67, St. Bonaventure – 60 (Dayton 74%)

Rhode Island – 62, George Washington – 61 (Rhode Island 53%)

 

Big 12

Kansas – 64, Baylor – 65 (Baylor 52%)

Iowa State – 71, Oklahoma – 72 (Oklahoma 53%)

 

Big East

Villanova – 74, Providence – 63 (Villanova 85%)

Georgetown – 69, Xavier – 66 (Georgetown 61%)

 

Big Sky

Eastern Washington – 79, Sacramento St. – 77 (Eastern Washington 57%)

Montana – 73, Northern Arizona – 67 (Montana 70%)

 

Big Ten

Wisconsin – 68, Michigan – 54 (Wisconsin 92%)

Purdue – 66, Penn St. – 63 (Purdue 64%)

Maryland – 73, Indiana – 71 (Maryland 57%)

Michigan St. – 67, Ohio St. – 68 (Ohio St. 55%)

 

Big West

UC-Davis – 73, Hawaii – 74 (Hawaii 51%)

UC-Santa Barbara – 65, UC-Irvine – 64 (UC-Santa Barbara 55%)

 

C-USA

UTEP – 65, Middle Tennessee – 61 (UTEP 68%)

Louisiana Tech – 72, UAB – 68 (Louisiana Tech 65%)

 

MEAC

N.C. Central – 75, Delaware St. – 61 (N.C. Central 89%)

Norfolk St. – 75, Hampton – 69 (Norfolk St. 71%)

 

MAC

Central Michigan – 77, Toledo – 76 (Central Michigan 52%)

Buffalo – 73, Akron – 68 (Buffalo 65%)

 

Mountain West

Boise St. – 62, Wyoming – 55 (Boise St. 78%)

San Diego St. – 62, Colorado St. – 61 (San Diego St. 54%)

 

PAC-12

Arizona – 74, UCLA – 61 (Arizona 88%)

Oregon – 61 , Utah – 73 (Utah 86%)

 

SEC

Kentucky – 64, Florida – 51 (Kentucky 91%)

LSU – 79, Auburn – 69 (LSU 80%)

Arkansas – 72, Tennessee – 65 (Arkansas 76%)

Georgia – 63, South Carolina – 59 (Georgia 68%)

 

Southland

Stephen F. Austin – 98, Northwestern St. – 81 (Stephen F. Austin 87%)

Sam Houston St. – 65, Texas A&M-CC – 57 (Sam Houston St. 80%)

 

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette – 69, Texas St. – 63 (Louisiana-Lafayette 72%)

Louisiana-Monroe – 67, South Alabama – 57 (Louisiana-Monroe 83%)

 

SWAC

Alabama St. – 67, Southern – 68 (Southern 51%)

Texas Southern – 74, Prairie View – 70 (Texas Southern 65%)

 

WAC

New Mexico St. – 68, Cal State Bakersfield – 58 (New Mexico St. 84%)

UMKC – 63, Seattle – 65 (Seattle 60%)



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