Odds of each team advancing

Here are the BracketAdvice odds for each team advancing to each round of the 2015 tournament. Teams with a low chance of advancing are not listed.

Midwest
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Kentucky 97.9%
Manhattan / Hampton 2.1%
Kentucky 88.5%
Cincinnati 6.7%
Purdue 4.4%
Kentucky 79.9%
Maryland 7.8%
West Virginia 3.9%
Cincinnati 3.5%
Buffalo 2.2%
Purdue 2.1%
Kentucky 66.5%
Kansas 10.0%
Notre Dame 6.9%
Wichita State 4.7%
Maryland 3.2%
Texas 2.5%
West Virginia 1.4%
Cincinnati 1.3%
Butler 1.3%
Cincinnati 55.7%
Purdue 44.3%
West Virginia 56.4%
Buffalo 43.6%
Maryland 45.9%
West Virginia 28.1%
Buffalo 19.2%
Valparaiso 6.8%
Maryland 77.4%
Valparaiso 22.6%
Texas 56.4%
Butler 43.6%
Notre Dame 52.8%
Texas 27.0%
Butler 18.3%
Northeastern 1.9%
Kansas 32.7%
Notre Dame 26.3%
Wichita State 18.1%
Texas 11.6%
Butler 6.7%
Indiana 3.6%
Notre Dame 88.4%
Northeastern 11.6%
Wichita State 68.6%
Indiana 31.4%
Kansas 53.3%
Wichita State 33.3%
Indiana 9.9%
New Mexico State 3.4%
Kansas 85.3%
New Mexico State 14.7%

West
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Wisconsin 97.3%
Coastal Carolina 2.7%
Wisconsin 86.9%
Oklahoma State 8.3%
Oregon 4.3%
Wisconsin 67.5%
North Carolina 22.5%
Arkansas 4.5%
Oklahoma State 2.9%
Oregon 1.2%
Wisconsin 44.2%
Arizona 30.0%
North Carolina 10.2%
Baylor 7.7%
Ohio State 3.7%
Arkansas 1.1%
Oklahoma State 59.2%
Oregon 40.8%
Arkansas 73.9%
Wofford 26.1%
North Carolina 63.9%
Arkansas 24.4%
Harvard 7.5%
Wofford 4.2%
North Carolina 82.6%
Harvard 17.4%
Xavier 52.2%
BYU / Ole Miss 47.8%
Baylor 55.8%
Xavier 18.4%
BYU / Ole Miss 16.0%
Georgia State 9.8%
Arizona 56.7%
Baylor 21.4%
Ohio State 11.5%
Xavier 3.8%
BYU / Ole Miss 3.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 1.7%
Georgia State 1.6%
Baylor 77.3%
Georgia State 22.7%
Ohio State 69.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 30.1%
Arizona 74.8%
Ohio State 20.4%
Virginia Commonwealth 4.7%
Arizona 98.5%
Texas Southern 1.5%

East
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Villanova 97.2%
Lafayette 2.8%
Villanova 80.6%
North Carolina State 13.9%
Louisiana State 5.2%
Villanova 61.2%
Louisville 15.4%
Northern Iowa 14.8%
North Carolina State 6.2%
Louisiana State 1.7%
Virginia 38.6%
Villanova 34.7%
Oklahoma 8.6%
Louisville 5.1%
Northern Iowa 4.9%
Michigan State 4.0%
North Carolina State 1.7%
North Carolina State 63.6%
Louisiana State 36.4%
Northern Iowa 82.6%
Wyoming 17.4%
Louisville 46.8%
Northern Iowa 45.6%
Wyoming 4.0%
California-Irvine 3.7%
Louisville 83.6%
California-Irvine 16.4%
Providence 53.2%
Boise St. / Dayton 46.8%
Oklahoma 64.4%
Providence 18.7%
Boise St. / Dayton 15.4%
Albany 1.6%
Virginia 60.0%
Oklahoma 21.3%
Michigan State 10.2%
Providence 3.5%
Boise St. / Dayton 2.7%
Georgia 2.2%
Oklahoma 91.4%
Albany 8.6%
Michigan State 66.7%
Georgia 33.3%
Virginia 76.0%
Michigan State 18.1%
Georgia 5.5%
Virginia 96.7%
Belmont 3.3%

South
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Duke 96.2%
N.Florida / Robert Morris 3.8%
Duke 80.4%
San Diego State 11.7%
Saint John’s 7.2%
Duke 51.1%
Utah 31.7%
Georgetown 10.4%
San Diego State 3.4%
Saint John’s 1.7%
Stephen F. Austin 1.4%
Duke 33.1%
Gonzaga 22.7%
Utah 19.1%
Iowa State 10.2%
Iowa 4.6%
Georgetown 4.1%
Southern Methodist 3.2%
San Diego State 1.0%
San Diego State 57.1%
Saint John’s 42.9%
Utah 82.9%
Stephen F. Austin 17.1%
Utah 60.8%
Georgetown 31.7%
Stephen F. Austin 6.6%
Georgetown 88.7%
Eastern Washington 11.3%
Southern Methodist 67.1%
UCLA 32.9%
Iowa State 57.2%
Southern Methodist 30.2%
UCLA 9.9%
UAB 2.7%
Gonzaga 44.8%
Iowa State 25.8%
Iowa 13.0%
Southern Methodist 10.7%
Davidson 3.2%
UCLA 2.1%
Iowa State 87.6%
UAB 12.4%
Iowa 66.0%
Davidson 34.0%
Gonzaga 65.9%
Iowa 24.7%
Davidson 8.5%
Gonzaga 93.7%
North Dakota State 6.3%

Final Four
Semifinals National Championship Game
Kentucky 44.9%
Wisconsin 23.2%
Arizona 14.2%
Kansas 3.7%
North Carolina 3.5%
Baylor 2.5%
Notre Dame 2.2%
Wichita State 1.5%
Ohio State 1.1%
Kentucky 31.9%
Wisconsin 14.4%
Virginia 12.0%
Villanova 9.2%
Arizona 8.0%
Duke 7.1%
Gonzaga 3.6%
Utah 3.4%
Kansas 1.5%
North Carolina 1.4%
Virginia 24.9%
Villanova 21.0%
Duke 17.2%
Gonzaga 10.5%
Utah 9.1%
Iowa State 3.6%
Oklahoma 3.5%
Louisville 1.8%
Northern Iowa 1.7%
Michigan State 1.6%
Iowa 1.4%
Georgetown 1.2%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes. Teams with less than 1% chance of advancing are not listed.



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