Odds of Advancing Based on Tournament Seed

In an earlier post, we discussed how many wins each seed line has accumulated in each round of the tournament since 1985. Here, we examine those data a bit more and explore the historical odds a team advancing to and winning a game in each round of the tournament.

Percentage of Seeds That Advance From Each Round (1985-2014)
Seed Round 1 Round 2 Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four National Champion
1 100.0% 86.7% 68.3% 40.0% 22.5% 15.0%
2 94.2% 64.2% 46.7% 21.7% 10.0% 3.3%
3 85.0% 50.0% 25.0% 11.7% 7.5% 3.3%
4 79.2% 45.0% 15.8% 10.8% 2.5% 0.8%
5 63.3% 32.5% 6.7% 5.0% 2.5%
6 65.8% 34.2% 10.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8%
7 60.8% 16.7% 6.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
8 49.2% 9.2% 6.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.8%
9 50.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.8%
10 39.2% 19.2% 5.8%
11 32.0% 13.3% 4.7% 2.3%
12 34.4% 15.6% 0.8%
13 20.8% 5.0%
14 15.0% 1.7%
15 5.8% 0.8%
16

 



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