NCAA Tournament Probabilities (March 3, 2017)

Team Conference Wins Losses NCAA Probability RPI SOS
Villanova Big East 27 3 100% 1 30
Kansas Big 12 27 3 100% 2 35
Florida SEC 24 6 100% 3 6
Oregon Pac-12 26 4 100% 4 32
North Carolina ACC 25 6 100% 5 25
Louisville ACC 23 7 100% 6 3
Baylor Big 12 24 6 100% 7 4
Kentucky SEC 25 5 100% 8 16
Arizona Pac-12 26 4 100% 9 31
Butler Big East 23 6 100% 10 12
Gonzaga West Coast 29 1 100% 11 103
Florida State ACC 23 7 100% 12 26
Duke ACC 23 7 100% 13 23
Cincinnati American 26 4 100% 14 71
Virginia ACC 20 9 100% 15 5
UCLA Pac-12 27 3 100% 16 136
Minnesota Big Ten 23 7 100% 17 19
Saint Mary’s West Coast 26 3 100% 18 84
Purdue Big Ten 24 6 100% 20 66
Dayton Atlantic 10 24 5 100% 21 72
Notre Dame ACC 23 7 100% 22 48
West Virginia Big 12 23 7 100% 24 73
Creighton Big East 23 7 99% 26 63
Southern Methodist American 26 4 98.70% 19 122
Iowa State Big 12 20 9 98.60% 30 39
Virginia Tech ACC 21 8 98.50% 32 82
Miami (FL) ACC 20 9 98.50% 34 44
South Carolina SEC 22 8 98.10% 28 45
Arkansas SEC 22 8 97.30% 27 57
Maryland Big Ten 23 7 97.20% 25 47
Oklahoma State Big 12 20 10 96.70% 29 27
Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 23 7 95.80% 23 59
Southern California Pac-12 22 8 91.80% 35 70
Xavier Big East 18 12 83.80% 31 8
Middle Tennessee C-USA 26 4 83.30% 39 153
Michigan State Big Ten 18 12 82.30% 46 11
Wisconsin Big Ten 22 8 81.40% 43 104
Wichita State Missouri Valley 27 4 79.70% 41 193
Northwestern Big Ten 21 9 78.60% 45 76
Illinois State Missouri Valley 25 5 72.50% 33 163
Wake Forest ACC 17 12 71.60% 38 13
Texas-Arlington Sun Belt 24 6 69.60% 37 155
Michigan Big Ten 19 11 61.70% 48 34
North Carolina-Wilmington Colonial 26 5 54.90% 36 150
Providence Big East 19 11 53.20% 54 41
Rhode Island Atlantic 10 20 9 50.10% 42 52
Illinois Big Ten 18 12 41.40% 55 15
Marquette Big East 18 11 40.20% 59 68
Monmouth Metro Atlantic 26 5 39.20% 44 178
Nevada Mountain West 24 6 35.30% 40 159
Seton Hall Big East 19 10 32.20% 50 60
Vanderbilt SEC 16 14 26.80% 47 2
Houston American 20 9 21.50% 51 58
Clemson ACC 15 14 21.30% 61 17
California Pac-12 19 10 19.70% 53 37
Kansas State Big 12 18 12 19% 58 53
Vermont America East 27 5 15.90% 52 217
Belmont Ohio Valley 22 5 15.60% 57 225
Georgia SEC 18 12 10.10% 49 14
Ohio State Big Ten 17 13 9.40% 65 33
Iowa Big Ten 17 13 7.90% 71 40
Princeton Ivy League 19 6 7.20% 56 154
Valparaiso Horizon 24 7 6.90% 62 202
Syracuse ACC 17 13 5.10% 78 55
Pittsburgh ACC 15 15 4.90% 69 9
College of Charleston Colonial 23 8 3.90% 60 160
Texas Christian Big 12 17 13 3.40% 66 24
Akron Mid American 23 7 2.20% 64 185
New Mexico State Western Athletic 24 5 1.90% 63 261
Brigham Young West Coast 21 10 1.50% 68 97
Utah Pac-12 19 10 0.90% 73 113
East Tennessee State Southern 24 7 0.80% 70 230
Bucknell Patriot 24 8 0.80% 72 224
Georgia Tech ACC 17 13 0.70% 91 56
Boise State Mountain West 18 10 0.60% 67 85
Central Florida American 20 10 0.50% 77 132
Indiana Big Ten 16 14 0.50% 92 36
Mississippi SEC 18 12 0.40% 75 69
Winthrop Big South 24 6 0.40% 80 251
Texas A&M SEC 16 13 0.40% 85 54
North Carolina-Asheville Big South 23 9 0.30% 74 194
Cal State Bakersfield Western Athletic 21 7 0.30% 79 256
Stanford Pac-12 14 15 0.30% 81 7
Tennessee SEC 15 15 0.30% 82 20
Alabama SEC 17 12 0.20% 83 77
Colorado State Mountain West 21 9 0.10% 76 124
Richmond Atlantic 10 18 11 0.10% 84 90
Nebraska Big Ten 12 17 0.10% 87 1
San Francisco West Coast 20 11 0.10% 89 110
Florida Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 25 7 0.10% 96 245
Texas Tech Big 12 18 12 0.10% 100 101
Fresno State Mountain West 18 11 0% 86 130
New Mexico Mountain West 16 13 0% 88 50
Auburn SEC 17 13 0% 89 91
Arkansas State Sun Belt 20 10 0% 93 204
Penn State Big Ten 14 16 0% 94 21
St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 18 11 0% 94 126
Georgetown Big East 14 16 0% 97 22
Towson Colonial 19 12 0% 98 120
Furman Southern 21 10 0% 99 201
San Diego State Mountain West 17 12 0% 101 95
Northern Kentucky Horizon 21 10 0% 102 199
Oakland Horizon 24 7 0% 103 274
North Carolina-Greensboro Southern 23 8 0% 104 249
North Dakota State Summit 19 10 0% 104 165
Colorado Pac-12 17 13 0% 106 125
Davidson Atlantic 10 15 13 0% 106 83
South Dakota Summit 21 10 0% 106 228
George Washington Atlantic 10 17 13 0% 109 127
George Mason Atlantic 10 19 11 0% 110 156
Tulsa American 14 15 0% 111 38
North Carolina State ACC 15 16 0% 112 43
Connecticut American 14 15 0% 113 51
Louisiana Tech C-USA 21 9 0% 114 231
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 18 12 0% 115 166
Memphis American 19 11 0% 116 168
Wright State Horizon 20 11 0% 117 173
Lehigh Patriot 19 11 0% 118 207
Iona Metro Atlantic 19 12 0% 119 175
St. John’s (NY) Big East 13 17 0% 120 46
Old Dominion C-USA 19 10 0% 121 197
Temple American 15 15 0% 121 65
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 19 11 0% 123 176
Northeastern Colonial 15 15 0% 123 100
William & Mary Colonial 16 13 0% 123 129
Ohio Mid American 18 10 0% 126 184
Georgia State Sun Belt 18 11 0% 127 183
La Salle Atlantic 10 14 14 0% 128 78
Texas Southern SWAC 19 11 0% 129 305
Chattanooga Southern 19 11 0% 130 218
Arizona State Pac-12 14 16 0% 131 62
Harvard Ivy League 18 7 0% 132 288
Eastern Washington Big Sky 21 9 0% 133 296
Saint Peter’s Metro Atlantic 18 12 0% 134 195
Marshall C-USA 16 14 0% 135 105
New Hampshire America East 20 11 0% 136 219
Yale Ivy League 15 10 0% 137 215
Wyoming Mountain West 17 13 0% 138 147
Buffalo Mid American 16 14 0% 139 121
Nebraska-Omaha Summit 16 13 0% 140 174
Mississippi State SEC 14 15 0% 141 79
Loyola Marymount West Coast 15 14 0% 142 87
Siena Metro Atlantic 15 16 0% 142 92
Rice C-USA 21 9 0% 144 273
Green Bay Horizon 18 12 0% 145 227
Elon Colonial 18 13 0% 146 192
Santa Clara West Coast 16 15 0% 147 107
Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 16 15 0% 148 106
Albany (NY) America East 20 12 0% 149 242
Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 14 15 0% 150 94
Grand Canyon Western Athletic 21 9 0% 151 301
California-Irvine Big West 18 13 0% 152 211
Oklahoma Big 12 10 19 0% 153 28
Eastern Michigan Mid American 15 15 0% 154 86
Canisius Metro Atlantic 18 14 0% 155 214
Washington State Pac-12 13 16 0% 156 49
Tennessee-Martin Ohio Valley 20 11 0% 157 299
Texas Big 12 10 20 0% 158 10
Louisiana State SEC 10 19 0% 159 18
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Southland 18 10 0% 160 300
Loyola (IL) Missouri Valley 18 13 0% 161 209
UMBC America East 18 12 0% 161 244
Tennessee State Ohio Valley 17 13 0% 163 196
Toledo Mid American 15 15 0% 164 99
Stony Brook America East 18 12 0% 165 239
IPFW Summit 19 11 0% 166 281
Houston Baptist Southland 16 12 0% 167 179
Mount St. Mary’s Northeast 17 15 0% 168 188
San Jose State Mountain West 14 14 0% 169 117
Western Michigan Mid American 14 15 0% 170 119
Fairfield Metro Atlantic 16 13 0% 171 221
Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 15 15 0% 172 81
Rutgers Big Ten 13 17 0% 173 93
Boston University Patriot 18 13 0% 174 250
Liberty Big South 19 13 0% 175 210
Samford Southern 17 14 0% 176 205
Kent State Mid American 18 12 0% 177 277
Ball State Mid American 19 11 0% 178 308
Hofstra Colonial 15 16 0% 179 143
Alabama-Birmingham C-USA 16 14 0% 180 161
Evansville Missouri Valley 16 16 0% 181 111
North Dakota Big Sky 18 9 0% 182 322
Jacksonville State Ohio Valley 18 14 0% 183 284
Massachusetts Atlantic 10 14 16 0% 184 123
Troy Sun Belt 17 14 0% 185 222
Lipscomb Atlantic Sun 20 13 0% 186 262
Missouri-Kansas City Western Athletic 15 15 0% 187 96
Sam Houston State Southland 19 11 0% 188 285
Mercer Southern 15 16 0% 189 142
Gardner-Webb Big South 19 13 0% 190 287
Utah State Mountain West 14 16 0% 191 98
Pennsylvania Ivy League 12 13 0% 192 198
Saint Joseph’s Atlantic 10 10 19 0% 192 64
California-Davis Big West 19 11 0% 194 332
New Orleans Southland 17 11 0% 195 295
San Diego West Coast 13 17 0% 196 109
Rider Metro Atlantic 18 14 0% 197 312
Wofford Southern 15 16 0% 198 164
South Dakota State Summit 15 16 0% 199 167
Texas State Sun Belt 17 12 0% 199 302
Weber State Big Sky 16 12 0% 201 283
Denver Summit 16 13 0% 202 294
Morehead State Ohio Valley 14 16 0% 203 146
Holy Cross Patriot 15 17 0% 204 208
Boston College ACC 9 21 0% 205 29
Fordham Atlantic 10 13 17 0% 206 128
Loyola (MD) Patriot 15 16 0% 207 206
Washington Pac-12 9 20 0% 208 42
Central Michigan Mid American 16 14 0% 209 234
Navy Patriot 16 15 0% 210 203
Utah Valley Western Athletic 13 15 0% 211 177
Missouri State Missouri Valley 16 15 0% 212 247
Montana Big Sky 15 15 0% 213 260
Idaho Big Sky 16 12 0% 214 306
Radford Big South 14 17 0% 215 172
Stephen F. Austin Southland 16 13 0% 216 291
Bowling Green State Mid American 13 17 0% 217 135
North Carolina Central MEAC 22 8 0% 218 351
Long Beach State Big West 13 18 0% 219 181
Bradley Missouri Valley 13 19 0% 220 148
East Carolina American 14 16 0% 221 187
North Florida Atlantic Sun 15 18 0% 222 157
Western Kentucky C-USA 14 16 0% 223 280
IUPUI Summit 13 17 0% 224 232
Long Island University Northeast 20 12 0% 225 341
Pacific West Coast 10 21 0% 226 75
Indiana State Missouri Valley 11 20 0% 227 115
DePaul Big East 9 21 0% 228 74
Murray State Ohio Valley 16 16 0% 229 271
Charlotte C-USA 13 15 0% 230 212
Alcorn State SWAC 16 12 0% 231 329
Pepperdine West Coast 9 21 0% 231 67
South Carolina Upstate Atlantic Sun 18 14 0% 233 290
High Point Big South 15 16 0% 234 241
Northern Illinois Mid American 15 15 0% 235 259
Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West 11 19 0% 236 134
Robert Morris Northeast 14 18 0% 237 267
Wagner Northeast 16 13 0% 237 323
South Alabama Sun Belt 13 17 0% 239 169
Montana State Big Sky 16 14 0% 240 286
Arkansas-Little Rock Sun Belt 15 15 0% 241 293
Duquesne Atlantic 10 10 20 0% 242 114
Portland West Coast 10 21 0% 243 89
Lamar Southland 17 13 0% 244 334
Saint Louis Atlantic 10 11 19 0% 245 137
Nicholls State Southland 14 16 0% 246 263
Cleveland State Horizon 9 21 0% 247 88
Delaware Colonial 12 19 0% 248 186
Southeastern Louisiana Southland 16 15 0% 248 325
Illinois-Chicago Horizon 14 17 0% 250 257
Eastern Kentucky Ohio Valley 12 19 0% 251 171
Texas-El Paso C-USA 13 16 0% 251 255
Columbia Ivy League 11 14 0% 253 278
Manhattan Metro Atlantic 10 22 0% 254 152
Norfolk State MEAC 15 15 0% 255 330
James Madison Colonial 9 22 0% 256 131
Air Force Mountain West 11 19 0% 257 108
Western Carolina Southern 9 22 0% 258 112
Campbell Big South 16 16 0% 259 311
Austin Peay Ohio Valley 11 19 0% 260 191
Missouri SEC 7 22 0% 261 80
Army Patriot 13 19 0% 262 235
Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 14 18 0% 262 304
Seattle Western Athletic 13 15 0% 264 266
Brown Ivy League 12 16 0% 265 269
Saint Francis (PA) Northeast 15 15 0% 266 339
Eastern Illinois Ohio Valley 14 15 0% 267 333
Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 10 21 0% 268 182
Detroit Mercy Horizon 8 22 0% 269 140
Youngstown State Horizon 11 20 0% 270 216
Cal Poly Big West 11 18 0% 271 275
Tennessee Tech Ohio Valley 12 20 0% 272 238
Fairleigh Dickinson Northeast 11 19 0% 273 258
Marist Metro Atlantic 8 24 0% 274 138
Southeast Missouri State Ohio Valley 15 18 0% 275 326
Drexel Colonial 9 22 0% 276 213
Abilene Christian Southland 13 15 0% 277 298
Portland State Big Sky 14 14 0% 278 338
Bryant Northeast 12 20 0% 279 233
Citadel Southern 11 20 0% 280 189
Hampton MEAC 14 15 0% 281 328
Oral Roberts Summit 8 22 0% 282 102
Niagara Metro Atlantic 10 22 0% 283 246
NJIT Atlantic Sun 10 21 0% 284 223
Savannah State MEAC 13 16 0% 285 331
Cornell Ivy League 7 20 0% 286 162
Oregon State Pac-12 5 25 0% 287 61
Charleston Southern Big South 12 19 0% 288 253
Hawaii Big West 14 14 0% 288 309
Milwaukee Horizon 8 23 0% 290 141
Colgate Patriot 10 22 0% 291 270
South Carolina State MEAC 10 19 0% 292 248
Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 17 15 0% 293 348
Sacramento State Big Sky 12 16 0% 293 307
Tulane American 5 24 0% 295 118
Central Arkansas Southland 8 22 0% 296 190
Cal State Northridge Big West 11 17 0% 297 317
Florida Atlantic C-USA 10 18 0% 297 254
Miami (OH) Mid American 11 19 0% 299 180
Incarnate Word Southland 12 16 0% 300 252
Appalachian State Sun Belt 8 20 0% 301 151
South Florida American 7 21 0% 302 149
Sacred Heart Northeast 13 19 0% 303 327
Maryland-Eastern Shore MEAC 12 19 0% 304 313
Cal State Fullerton Big West 15 13 0% 305 343
Massachusetts-Lowell America East 11 20 0% 305 264
American Patriot 8 22 0% 307 200
Northern Colorado Big Sky 10 18 0% 307 289
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 8 22 0% 309 145
Binghamton America East 12 20 0% 310 268
Northwestern State Southland 12 16 0% 311 324
Prairie View SWAC 12 19 0% 312 315
Texas-San Antonio C-USA 12 18 0% 313 319
McNeese State Southland 7 21 0% 314 158
Drake Missouri Valley 7 24 0% 315 139
Chicago State Western Athletic 6 24 0% 316 133
Lafayette Patriot 9 21 0% 317 276
Maine America East 7 25 0% 318 170
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Western Athletic 10 20 0% 318 220
Dartmouth Ivy League 6 19 0% 320 229
Jackson State SWAC 13 17 0% 321 342
Morgan State MEAC 14 15 0% 322 347
Southern SWAC 14 16 0% 323 349
Western Illinois Summit 8 19 0% 324 272
Virginia Military Institute Southern 6 23 0% 325 144
Hartford America East 9 23 0% 326 297
Grambling SWAC 14 16 0% 327 344
Stetson Atlantic Sun 11 21 0% 328 310
California-Santa Barbara Big West 5 22 0% 329 116
California-Riverside Big West 8 20 0% 330 292
Delaware State MEAC 10 21 0% 331 335
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Ohio Valley 6 24 0% 332 237
Coppin State MEAC 8 23 0% 333 316
Mississippi Valley State SWAC 6 24 0% 334 282
North Texas C-USA 8 21 0% 335 240
Southern Mississippi C-USA 9 20 0% 336 303
Idaho State Big Sky 5 24 0% 337 226
Northern Arizona Big Sky 8 22 0% 338 320
Longwood Big South 6 24 0% 339 265
Howard MEAC 8 23 0% 340 321
Florida International C-USA 6 24 0% 341 236
Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC 7 24 0% 342 318
Southern Utah Big Sky 5 25 0% 343 279
Presbyterian Big South 5 25 0% 344 243
Alabama State SWAC 8 21 0% 345 337
Central Connecticut State Northeast 6 23 0% 346 340
Bethune-Cookman MEAC 9 21 0% 347 346
St. Francis (NY) Northeast 4 27 0% 348 314
Florida A&M MEAC 7 22 0% 349 350
North Carolina A&T MEAC 3 28 0% 350 336
Alabama A&M SWAC 2 26 0% 351 345


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