Here are our updated odds of each team advancing from the Sweet 16 through the championship game.

Regional Semis	Regional Champion	Semifinals	Championship
Florida 61.3% Wisconsin 38.7%	Baylor 39.4% Florida 35.3% Wisconsin 18.1% South Carolina 7.2%	Gonzaga 32.0% West Virginia 17.6% Baylor 16.6% Florida 15.2% Arizona 9.7% Wisconsin 6.0% Xavier 1.5% South Carolina 1.5%	Gonzaga 22.4% West Virginia 10.8% Baylor 8.8% North Carolina 8.5% Florida 8.3% Kansas 7.1% Kentucky 6.7% Oregon 5.8% Purdue 5.4% Arizona 4.5% Butler 3.0% UCLA 2.8% Wisconsin 2.6% Michigan 2.5% Xavier 0.4% South Carolina 0.4%
Baylor 74.5% South Carolina 25.5%
Gonzaga 59.3% West Virginia 40.7%	Gonzaga 45.7% West Virginia 28.4% Arizona 20.8% Xavier 5.2%
Arizona 68.7% Xavier 31.3%
Kansas 52.8% Purdue 47.2%	Kansas 29.8% Oregon 27.8% Purdue 25.5% Michigan 16.9%	North Carolina 18.5% Kansas 15.9% Kentucky 15.5% Oregon 13.9% Purdue 12.8% Butler 8.3% UCLA 7.8% Michigan 7.2%
Oregon 57.9% Michigan 42.1%
North Carolina 60.0% Butler 40.0%	North Carolina 33.8% Kentucky 29.7% Butler 18.5% UCLA 17.9%
Kentucky 58.3% UCLA 41.7%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.

 

East

This brutal region has 6 of the top 13 teams in the BracketAdvice Ratings.

The first round looks relatively upset free, with the exception of 10-seed Marquette as a good bet to advance. Wisconsin has the best chance of the 8 seeds in any region to advance. In the second round, our model has Virginia as a clear favorite to advance, and Baylor has a fight on its hands against SMU to reach the Sweet 16.

Villanova is the clear favorite to emerge from the gauntlet of excellent teams in the East, with Duke and Virginia as plausible spoilers.

West

Xavier is well positioned to win a 1st round game, and is the highest seed (11) we have listed as the favorite in their first round game. Congratulations to Northwestern for making the field, we have them basically as a tossup to win their first ever NCAA game.

Our model has St. Mary’s as a very strong team and even lists them as a favorite over Pac-10 champ Arizona. Gonzaga has as clear a path as any team in any region to the Final Four, if they can get past a likely matchup against an underrated West Virginia squad in the Elite Eight.

Midwest

This region might provide the best first round games to watch. The 8 Miami / 9 Michigan State, 7 Michigan / 10 Oklahoma State, and the 6 Creighton / 11 Rhode Island games should all be close.

The model likes 2-seed Louisville as a favorite over top seed Kansas, with Oregon and Purdue as potential spoilers.

South

The most “shocking” result here according to BracketAdvice is Wichita State getting a 10 seed. We have them not just advancing in the first round against overmatched Dayton, but as a tossup to beat perennial powerhouse Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Watch out for 12 seed Middle Tennessee State against 5 seed Minnesota, this may be the most likely 12 seed to win their first round game.

We have North Carolina most likely advancing against the Wichita State / Kentucky winner.

Final Four

The bracket is left-heavy this year, with the tough East and West regions clearly stronger than Midwest and South. The “real” championship might be played in the semifinals — we have Gonzaga and Villanova as the top two teams and they’d play each other first. The right half of the bracket is more of a tossup, with Louisville and UNC as the most likely opponents.

BracketAdvice has Gonzaga as a clear favorite over Villanova to advance to and win the 2017 NCAA Championship, even though the teams are pretty evenly matched, because of the relative strength of Villanova’s regional opponents.

 

Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2017 men’s tournament.

East
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Villanova 98.3% Playin Winner 1.7%	Villanova 85.0% Wisconsin 11.1% Virginia Tech 3.7%	Villanova 61.3% Virginia 24.2% Florida 9.2% Wisconsin 3.8%	Villanova 46.4% Duke 19.2% Virginia 14.8% Baylor 6.8% Southern Methodist 5.3% Florida 4.4% Wisconsin 1.5%
Wisconsin 64.7% Virginia Tech 35.3%
Virginia 88.0% North Carolina-Wilmington 12.0%	Virginia 60.8% Florida 33.4% North Carolina-Wilmington 3.1% East Tennessee State 2.7%
Florida 82.0% East Tennessee State 18.0%
Southern Methodist 75.4% Playin Winner 24.6%	Baylor 48.1% Southern Methodist 40.6% Playin Winner 7.3% New Mexico State 4.0%	Duke 48.5% Baylor 22.8% Southern Methodist 18.5% Marquette 4.7% South Carolina 2.8% Playin Winner 1.7%
Baylor 83.0% New Mexico State 17.0%
Marquette 55.8% South Carolina 44.2%	Duke 74.9% Marquette 13.9% South Carolina 9.5% Troy 1.7%
Duke 93.0% Troy 7.0%

West
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Gonzaga 98.6% South Dakota State 1.4%	Gonzaga 92.9% Northwestern 3.6% Vanderbilt 3.3%	Gonzaga 72.9% West Virginia 21.2% Notre Dame 4.1%	Gonzaga 62.5% West Virginia 14.5% Saint Mary’s 10.3% Florida State 6.5% Arizona 2.8% Notre Dame 1.9%
Northwestern 51.0% Vanderbilt 49.0%
Notre Dame 75.4% Princeton 24.6%	West Virginia 69.7% Notre Dame 24.8% Princeton 3.8% Bucknell 1.7%
West Virginia 92.4% Bucknell 7.6%
Xavier 50.9% Maryland 49.1%	Florida State 65.7% Xavier 15.7% Maryland 14.8% Florida Gulf Coast 3.8%	Saint Mary’s 39.0% Florida State 32.5% Arizona 17.8% Xavier 4.1% Maryland 3.7% Virginia Commonwealth 2.2%
Florida State 87.5% Florida Gulf Coast 12.5%
Saint Mary’s 82.0% Virginia Commonwealth 18.0%	Saint Mary’s 57.7% Arizona 34.5% Virginia Commonwealth 6.5% North Dakota 1.3%
Arizona 87.2% North Dakota 12.8%

Midwest
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Kansas 92.5% Playin Winner 7.5%	Kansas 64.8% Miami (Fla.) 18.7% Michigan State 15.4% Playin Winner 1.2%	Kansas 35.9% Purdue 29.2% Iowa State 18.0% Miami (Fla.) 6.9% Michigan State 5.3% Nevada 2.6% Vermont 2.0%	Louisville 38.5% Kansas 15.6% Oregon 13.5% Purdue 13.0% Iowa State 6.8% Michigan 3.5% Oklahoma State 2.4% Miami (Fla.) 1.9% Creighton 1.8% Michigan State 1.3%
Miami (Fla.) 53.1% Michigan State 46.9%
Iowa State 71.2% Nevada 28.8%	Purdue 49.7% Iowa State 34.9% Nevada 8.5% Vermont 6.9%
Purdue 78.9% Vermont 21.1%
Creighton 56.2% Rhode Island 43.8%	Oregon 62.6% Creighton 20.6% Rhode Island 13.8% Iona 3.0%	Louisville 54.1% Oregon 24.9% Michigan 7.6% Oklahoma State 5.5% Creighton 4.9% Rhode Island 2.7%
Oregon 88.1% Iona 11.9%
Michigan 53.8% Oklahoma State 46.2%	Louisville 72.9% Michigan 15.0% Oklahoma State 11.6%
Louisville 96.2% Jacksonville State 3.8%

South
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
North Carolina 97.0% Texas Southern 3.0%	North Carolina 80.8% Arkansas 10.9% Seton Hall 8.0%	North Carolina 59.1% Butler 20.3% Minnesota 9.1% Arkansas 4.2% Middle Tennessee 3.9% Seton Hall 2.7%	North Carolina 35.9% Wichita State 15.9% Kentucky 15.1% Cincinnati 9.0% Butler 8.6% UCLA 7.4% Minnesota 3.1% Playin Winner 1.5% Arkansas 1.1% Middle Tennessee 1.0%
Arkansas 54.4% Seton Hall 45.6%
Minnesota 59.6% Middle Tennessee 40.4%	Butler 51.4% Minnesota 28.3% Middle Tennessee 15.8% Winthrop 4.5%
Butler 82.7% Winthrop 17.3%
Cincinnati 66.7% Playin Winner 33.3%	UCLA 42.4% Cincinnati 40.4% Playin Winner 14.9% Kent State 2.3%	Kentucky 28.6% Wichita State 28.5% Cincinnati 18.6% UCLA 17.2% Playin Winner 4.5% Dayton 2.1%
UCLA 85.1% Kent State 14.9%
Wichita State 78.2% Dayton 21.8%	Kentucky 47.5% Wichita State 44.9% Dayton 6.4% Northern Kentucky 1.2%
Kentucky 90.0% Northern Kentucky 10.0%

Final Four
Semifinals	National Championship Game
Gonzaga 45.8% Villanova 23.1% West Virginia 7.3% Duke 6.2% Virginia 5.2% Saint Mary’s 4.3% Florida State 2.2% Baylor 1.7% Southern Methodist 1.2% Florida 1.1%	Gonzaga 37.9% Villanova 17.1% Louisville 9.7% North Carolina 6.0% West Virginia 4.7% Duke 3.5% Virginia 3.1% Wichita State 2.3% Saint Mary’s 2.3% Kansas 1.8% Kentucky 1.7% Purdue 1.6% Oregon 1.6%
Louisville 25.5% North Carolina 19.7% Wichita State 8.2% Kansas 7.6% Kentucky 7.1% Oregon 6.5% Purdue 6.5% Cincinnati 3.9% Butler 3.2% Iowa State 2.9% UCLA 2.8% Michigan 1.4%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.

 

Less than an hour until the selection show begins and we’ve run the model one last time. With Rhode Island taking care of business and winning the A-10 title (and avoiding Dayton in the process), the picture has become a bit more clear.

 

At the start of the day, the field was more or less set. Our model showed three teams up for one final at-large spot. Wake Forest and USC have probably done enough to make the field. That left Rhode Island, Illinois State, and Kansas State alive for the last team in. Rhode Island removed themselves from that conversation by grabbing the autobid from the A-10.

The last four in according to our model are:

 

Wake Forest (76.2%)

USC (63.5%)

Providence (58.6%)

Kansas St. (53.2%)

 

 

That leaves out Illinois State. For what it’s worth, we still give Illinois State a 39% chance of making the field, but it’s a bit of a long shot from our perspective.

 

I’ve seen some talk of Syracuse being in play for one of the last spots in the field. I just don’t see that happening. The Orange (currently 84th) would have an RPI 17 spots worse that the previous lowest-ranked RPI to receive an at-large bid (67th – USC in 2011). Despite Syracuse’s 6 top-50 wins (all of which came at home), they went 2-11 away from home with the only wins coming against Clemson and NC State and picked up bad losses to Boston College, Georgetown, and St. John’s (the latter two coming at home) along the way. Our model gives Cuse a 2.8% of making the tournament, so there is a very small chance that the committee may surprise us this year and break from their past tendencies in selecting the field, but I wouldn’t count on it.

 

Our model is built on data from past tournaments and, therefore, the percentages in this table reflect the likelihood that a team will receive an at-large bid given their resume based on historical trends in the selection of at-large teams. Our model ranks teams by the probability of receiving an at-large bid in the case that a team doesn’t receive an automatic bid..

 

We’ll see how it all shakes out soon, but enjoy the selection show!

 

 

Team	Conference	Wins	Losses	NCAA Probability	RPI	SOS
Villanova	Big East	27	3	100%	1	30
Kansas	Big 12	27	3	100%	2	35
Florida	SEC	24	6	100%	3	6
Oregon	Pac-12	26	4	100%	4	32
North Carolina	ACC	25	6	100%	5	25
Louisville	ACC	23	7	100%	6	3
Baylor	Big 12	24	6	100%	7	4
Kentucky	SEC	25	5	100%	8	16
Arizona	Pac-12	26	4	100%	9	31
Butler	Big East	23	6	100%	10	12
Gonzaga	West Coast	29	1	100%	11	103
Florida State	ACC	23	7	100%	12	26
Duke	ACC	23	7	100%	13	23
Cincinnati	American	26	4	100%	14	71
Virginia	ACC	20	9	100%	15	5
UCLA	Pac-12	27	3	100%	16	136
Minnesota	Big Ten	23	7	100%	17	19
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	26	3	100%	18	84
Purdue	Big Ten	24	6	100%	20	66
Dayton	Atlantic 10	24	5	100%	21	72
Notre Dame	ACC	23	7	100%	22	48
West Virginia	Big 12	23	7	100%	24	73
Creighton	Big East	23	7	99%	26	63
Southern Methodist	American	26	4	98.70%	19	122
Iowa State	Big 12	20	9	98.60%	30	39
Virginia Tech	ACC	21	8	98.50%	32	82
Miami (FL)	ACC	20	9	98.50%	34	44
South Carolina	SEC	22	8	98.10%	28	45
Arkansas	SEC	22	8	97.30%	27	57
Maryland	Big Ten	23	7	97.20%	25	47
Oklahoma State	Big 12	20	10	96.70%	29	27
Virginia Commonwealth	Atlantic 10	23	7	95.80%	23	59
Southern California	Pac-12	22	8	91.80%	35	70
Xavier	Big East	18	12	83.80%	31	8
Middle Tennessee	C-USA	26	4	83.30%	39	153
Michigan State	Big Ten	18	12	82.30%	46	11
Wisconsin	Big Ten	22	8	81.40%	43	104
Wichita State	Missouri Valley	27	4	79.70%	41	193
Northwestern	Big Ten	21	9	78.60%	45	76
Illinois State	Missouri Valley	25	5	72.50%	33	163
Wake Forest	ACC	17	12	71.60%	38	13
Texas-Arlington	Sun Belt	24	6	69.60%	37	155
Michigan	Big Ten	19	11	61.70%	48	34
North Carolina-Wilmington	Colonial	26	5	54.90%	36	150
Providence	Big East	19	11	53.20%	54	41
Rhode Island	Atlantic 10	20	9	50.10%	42	52
Illinois	Big Ten	18	12	41.40%	55	15
Marquette	Big East	18	11	40.20%	59	68
Monmouth	Metro Atlantic	26	5	39.20%	44	178
Nevada	Mountain West	24	6	35.30%	40	159
Seton Hall	Big East	19	10	32.20%	50	60
Vanderbilt	SEC	16	14	26.80%	47	2
Houston	American	20	9	21.50%	51	58
Clemson	ACC	15	14	21.30%	61	17
California	Pac-12	19	10	19.70%	53	37
Kansas State	Big 12	18	12	19%	58	53
Vermont	America East	27	5	15.90%	52	217
Belmont	Ohio Valley	22	5	15.60%	57	225
Georgia	SEC	18	12	10.10%	49	14
Ohio State	Big Ten	17	13	9.40%	65	33
Iowa	Big Ten	17	13	7.90%	71	40
Princeton	Ivy League	19	6	7.20%	56	154
Valparaiso	Horizon	24	7	6.90%	62	202
Syracuse	ACC	17	13	5.10%	78	55
Pittsburgh	ACC	15	15	4.90%	69	9
College of Charleston	Colonial	23	8	3.90%	60	160
Texas Christian	Big 12	17	13	3.40%	66	24
Akron	Mid American	23	7	2.20%	64	185
New Mexico State	Western Athletic	24	5	1.90%	63	261
Brigham Young	West Coast	21	10	1.50%	68	97
Utah	Pac-12	19	10	0.90%	73	113
East Tennessee State	Southern	24	7	0.80%	70	230
Bucknell	Patriot	24	8	0.80%	72	224
Georgia Tech	ACC	17	13	0.70%	91	56
Boise State	Mountain West	18	10	0.60%	67	85
Central Florida	American	20	10	0.50%	77	132
Indiana	Big Ten	16	14	0.50%	92	36
Mississippi	SEC	18	12	0.40%	75	69
Winthrop	Big South	24	6	0.40%	80	251
Texas A&M	SEC	16	13	0.40%	85	54
North Carolina-Asheville	Big South	23	9	0.30%	74	194
Cal State Bakersfield	Western Athletic	21	7	0.30%	79	256
Stanford	Pac-12	14	15	0.30%	81	7
Tennessee	SEC	15	15	0.30%	82	20
Alabama	SEC	17	12	0.20%	83	77
Colorado State	Mountain West	21	9	0.10%	76	124
Richmond	Atlantic 10	18	11	0.10%	84	90
Nebraska	Big Ten	12	17	0.10%	87	1
San Francisco	West Coast	20	11	0.10%	89	110
Florida Gulf Coast	Atlantic Sun	25	7	0.10%	96	245
Texas Tech	Big 12	18	12	0.10%	100	101
Fresno State	Mountain West	18	11	0%	86	130
New Mexico	Mountain West	16	13	0%	88	50
Auburn	SEC	17	13	0%	89	91
Arkansas State	Sun Belt	20	10	0%	93	204
Penn State	Big Ten	14	16	0%	94	21
St. Bonaventure	Atlantic 10	18	11	0%	94	126
Georgetown	Big East	14	16	0%	97	22
Towson	Colonial	19	12	0%	98	120
Furman	Southern	21	10	0%	99	201
San Diego State	Mountain West	17	12	0%	101	95
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	21	10	0%	102	199
Oakland	Horizon	24	7	0%	103	274
North Carolina-Greensboro	Southern	23	8	0%	104	249
North Dakota State	Summit	19	10	0%	104	165
Colorado	Pac-12	17	13	0%	106	125
Davidson	Atlantic 10	15	13	0%	106	83
South Dakota	Summit	21	10	0%	106	228
George Washington	Atlantic 10	17	13	0%	109	127
George Mason	Atlantic 10	19	11	0%	110	156
Tulsa	American	14	15	0%	111	38
North Carolina State	ACC	15	16	0%	112	43
Connecticut	American	14	15	0%	113	51
Louisiana Tech	C-USA	21	9	0%	114	231
Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	18	12	0%	115	166
Memphis	American	19	11	0%	116	168
Wright State	Horizon	20	11	0%	117	173
Lehigh	Patriot	19	11	0%	118	207
Iona	Metro Atlantic	19	12	0%	119	175
St. John’s (NY)	Big East	13	17	0%	120	46
Old Dominion	C-USA	19	10	0%	121	197
Temple	American	15	15	0%	121	65
Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	19	11	0%	123	176
Northeastern	Colonial	15	15	0%	123	100
William & Mary	Colonial	16	13	0%	123	129
Ohio	Mid American	18	10	0%	126	184
Georgia State	Sun Belt	18	11	0%	127	183
La Salle	Atlantic 10	14	14	0%	128	78
Texas Southern	SWAC	19	11	0%	129	305
Chattanooga	Southern	19	11	0%	130	218
Arizona State	Pac-12	14	16	0%	131	62
Harvard	Ivy League	18	7	0%	132	288
Eastern Washington	Big Sky	21	9	0%	133	296
Saint Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	18	12	0%	134	195
Marshall	C-USA	16	14	0%	135	105
New Hampshire	America East	20	11	0%	136	219
Yale	Ivy League	15	10	0%	137	215
Wyoming	Mountain West	17	13	0%	138	147
Buffalo	Mid American	16	14	0%	139	121
Nebraska-Omaha	Summit	16	13	0%	140	174
Mississippi State	SEC	14	15	0%	141	79
Loyola Marymount	West Coast	15	14	0%	142	87
Siena	Metro Atlantic	15	16	0%	142	92
Rice	C-USA	21	9	0%	144	273
Green Bay	Horizon	18	12	0%	145	227
Elon	Colonial	18	13	0%	146	192
Santa Clara	West Coast	16	15	0%	147	107
Southern Illinois	Missouri Valley	16	15	0%	148	106
Albany (NY)	America East	20	12	0%	149	242
Northern Iowa	Missouri Valley	14	15	0%	150	94
Grand Canyon	Western Athletic	21	9	0%	151	301
California-Irvine	Big West	18	13	0%	152	211
Oklahoma	Big 12	10	19	0%	153	28
Eastern Michigan	Mid American	15	15	0%	154	86
Canisius	Metro Atlantic	18	14	0%	155	214
Washington State	Pac-12	13	16	0%	156	49
Tennessee-Martin	Ohio Valley	20	11	0%	157	299
Texas	Big 12	10	20	0%	158	10
Louisiana State	SEC	10	19	0%	159	18
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	Southland	18	10	0%	160	300
Loyola (IL)	Missouri Valley	18	13	0%	161	209
UMBC	America East	18	12	0%	161	244
Tennessee State	Ohio Valley	17	13	0%	163	196
Toledo	Mid American	15	15	0%	164	99
Stony Brook	America East	18	12	0%	165	239
IPFW	Summit	19	11	0%	166	281
Houston Baptist	Southland	16	12	0%	167	179
Mount St. Mary’s	Northeast	17	15	0%	168	188
San Jose State	Mountain West	14	14	0%	169	117
Western Michigan	Mid American	14	15	0%	170	119
Fairfield	Metro Atlantic	16	13	0%	171	221
Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	15	15	0%	172	81
Rutgers	Big Ten	13	17	0%	173	93
Boston University	Patriot	18	13	0%	174	250
Liberty	Big South	19	13	0%	175	210
Samford	Southern	17	14	0%	176	205
Kent State	Mid American	18	12	0%	177	277
Ball State	Mid American	19	11	0%	178	308
Hofstra	Colonial	15	16	0%	179	143
Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	16	14	0%	180	161
Evansville	Missouri Valley	16	16	0%	181	111
North Dakota	Big Sky	18	9	0%	182	322
Jacksonville State	Ohio Valley	18	14	0%	183	284
Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	14	16	0%	184	123
Troy	Sun Belt	17	14	0%	185	222
Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun	20	13	0%	186	262
Missouri-Kansas City	Western Athletic	15	15	0%	187	96
Sam Houston State	Southland	19	11	0%	188	285
Mercer	Southern	15	16	0%	189	142
Gardner-Webb	Big South	19	13	0%	190	287
Utah State	Mountain West	14	16	0%	191	98
Pennsylvania	Ivy League	12	13	0%	192	198
Saint Joseph’s	Atlantic 10	10	19	0%	192	64
California-Davis	Big West	19	11	0%	194	332
New Orleans	Southland	17	11	0%	195	295
San Diego	West Coast	13	17	0%	196	109
Rider	Metro Atlantic	18	14	0%	197	312
Wofford	Southern	15	16	0%	198	164
South Dakota State	Summit	15	16	0%	199	167
Texas State	Sun Belt	17	12	0%	199	302
Weber State	Big Sky	16	12	0%	201	283
Denver	Summit	16	13	0%	202	294
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	14	16	0%	203	146
Holy Cross	Patriot	15	17	0%	204	208
Boston College	ACC	9	21	0%	205	29
Fordham	Atlantic 10	13	17	0%	206	128
Loyola (MD)	Patriot	15	16	0%	207	206
Washington	Pac-12	9	20	0%	208	42
Central Michigan	Mid American	16	14	0%	209	234
Navy	Patriot	16	15	0%	210	203
Utah Valley	Western Athletic	13	15	0%	211	177
Missouri State	Missouri Valley	16	15	0%	212	247
Montana	Big Sky	15	15	0%	213	260
Idaho	Big Sky	16	12	0%	214	306
Radford	Big South	14	17	0%	215	172
Stephen F. Austin	Southland	16	13	0%	216	291
Bowling Green State	Mid American	13	17	0%	217	135
North Carolina Central	MEAC	22	8	0%	218	351
Long Beach State	Big West	13	18	0%	219	181
Bradley	Missouri Valley	13	19	0%	220	148
East Carolina	American	14	16	0%	221	187
North Florida	Atlantic Sun	15	18	0%	222	157
Western Kentucky	C-USA	14	16	0%	223	280
IUPUI	Summit	13	17	0%	224	232
Long Island University	Northeast	20	12	0%	225	341
Pacific	West Coast	10	21	0%	226	75
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	11	20	0%	227	115
DePaul	Big East	9	21	0%	228	74
Murray State	Ohio Valley	16	16	0%	229	271
Charlotte	C-USA	13	15	0%	230	212
Alcorn State	SWAC	16	12	0%	231	329
Pepperdine	West Coast	9	21	0%	231	67
South Carolina Upstate	Atlantic Sun	18	14	0%	233	290
High Point	Big South	15	16	0%	234	241
Northern Illinois	Mid American	15	15	0%	235	259
Nevada-Las Vegas	Mountain West	11	19	0%	236	134
Robert Morris	Northeast	14	18	0%	237	267
Wagner	Northeast	16	13	0%	237	323
South Alabama	Sun Belt	13	17	0%	239	169
Montana State	Big Sky	16	14	0%	240	286
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sun Belt	15	15	0%	241	293
Duquesne	Atlantic 10	10	20	0%	242	114
Portland	West Coast	10	21	0%	243	89
Lamar	Southland	17	13	0%	244	334
Saint Louis	Atlantic 10	11	19	0%	245	137
Nicholls State	Southland	14	16	0%	246	263
Cleveland State	Horizon	9	21	0%	247	88
Delaware	Colonial	12	19	0%	248	186
Southeastern Louisiana	Southland	16	15	0%	248	325
Illinois-Chicago	Horizon	14	17	0%	250	257
Eastern Kentucky	Ohio Valley	12	19	0%	251	171
Texas-El Paso	C-USA	13	16	0%	251	255
Columbia	Ivy League	11	14	0%	253	278
Manhattan	Metro Atlantic	10	22	0%	254	152
Norfolk State	MEAC	15	15	0%	255	330
James Madison	Colonial	9	22	0%	256	131
Air Force	Mountain West	11	19	0%	257	108
Western Carolina	Southern	9	22	0%	258	112
Campbell	Big South	16	16	0%	259	311
Austin Peay	Ohio Valley	11	19	0%	260	191
Missouri	SEC	7	22	0%	261	80
Army	Patriot	13	19	0%	262	235
Kennesaw State	Atlantic Sun	14	18	0%	262	304
Seattle	Western Athletic	13	15	0%	264	266
Brown	Ivy League	12	16	0%	265	269
Saint Francis (PA)	Northeast	15	15	0%	266	339
Eastern Illinois	Ohio Valley	14	15	0%	267	333
Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic	10	21	0%	268	182
Detroit Mercy	Horizon	8	22	0%	269	140
Youngstown State	Horizon	11	20	0%	270	216
Cal Poly	Big West	11	18	0%	271	275
Tennessee Tech	Ohio Valley	12	20	0%	272	238
Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast	11	19	0%	273	258
Marist	Metro Atlantic	8	24	0%	274	138
Southeast Missouri State	Ohio Valley	15	18	0%	275	326
Drexel	Colonial	9	22	0%	276	213
Abilene Christian	Southland	13	15	0%	277	298
Portland State	Big Sky	14	14	0%	278	338
Bryant	Northeast	12	20	0%	279	233
Citadel	Southern	11	20	0%	280	189
Hampton	MEAC	14	15	0%	281	328
Oral Roberts	Summit	8	22	0%	282	102
Niagara	Metro Atlantic	10	22	0%	283	246
NJIT	Atlantic Sun	10	21	0%	284	223
Savannah State	MEAC	13	16	0%	285	331
Cornell	Ivy League	7	20	0%	286	162
Oregon State	Pac-12	5	25	0%	287	61
Charleston Southern	Big South	12	19	0%	288	253
Hawaii	Big West	14	14	0%	288	309
Milwaukee	Horizon	8	23	0%	290	141
Colgate	Patriot	10	22	0%	291	270
South Carolina State	MEAC	10	19	0%	292	248
Jacksonville	Atlantic Sun	17	15	0%	293	348
Sacramento State	Big Sky	12	16	0%	293	307
Tulane	American	5	24	0%	295	118
Central Arkansas	Southland	8	22	0%	296	190
Cal State Northridge	Big West	11	17	0%	297	317
Florida Atlantic	C-USA	10	18	0%	297	254
Miami (OH)	Mid American	11	19	0%	299	180
Incarnate Word	Southland	12	16	0%	300	252
Appalachian State	Sun Belt	8	20	0%	301	151
South Florida	American	7	21	0%	302	149
Sacred Heart	Northeast	13	19	0%	303	327
Maryland-Eastern Shore	MEAC	12	19	0%	304	313
Cal State Fullerton	Big West	15	13	0%	305	343
Massachusetts-Lowell	America East	11	20	0%	305	264
American	Patriot	8	22	0%	307	200
Northern Colorado	Big Sky	10	18	0%	307	289
Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	8	22	0%	309	145
Binghamton	America East	12	20	0%	310	268
Northwestern State	Southland	12	16	0%	311	324
Prairie View	SWAC	12	19	0%	312	315
Texas-San Antonio	C-USA	12	18	0%	313	319
McNeese State	Southland	7	21	0%	314	158
Drake	Missouri Valley	7	24	0%	315	139
Chicago State	Western Athletic	6	24	0%	316	133
Lafayette	Patriot	9	21	0%	317	276
Maine	America East	7	25	0%	318	170
Texas-Rio Grande Valley	Western Athletic	10	20	0%	318	220
Dartmouth	Ivy League	6	19	0%	320	229
Jackson State	SWAC	13	17	0%	321	342
Morgan State	MEAC	14	15	0%	322	347
Southern	SWAC	14	16	0%	323	349
Western Illinois	Summit	8	19	0%	324	272
Virginia Military Institute	Southern	6	23	0%	325	144
Hartford	America East	9	23	0%	326	297
Grambling	SWAC	14	16	0%	327	344
Stetson	Atlantic Sun	11	21	0%	328	310
California-Santa Barbara	Big West	5	22	0%	329	116
California-Riverside	Big West	8	20	0%	330	292
Delaware State	MEAC	10	21	0%	331	335
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	Ohio Valley	6	24	0%	332	237
Coppin State	MEAC	8	23	0%	333	316
Mississippi Valley State	SWAC	6	24	0%	334	282
North Texas	C-USA	8	21	0%	335	240
Southern Mississippi	C-USA	9	20	0%	336	303
Idaho State	Big Sky	5	24	0%	337	226
Northern Arizona	Big Sky	8	22	0%	338	320
Longwood	Big South	6	24	0%	339	265
Howard	MEAC	8	23	0%	340	321
Florida International	C-USA	6	24	0%	341	236
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC	7	24	0%	342	318
Southern Utah	Big Sky	5	25	0%	343	279
Presbyterian	Big South	5	25	0%	344	243
Alabama State	SWAC	8	21	0%	345	337
Central Connecticut State	Northeast	6	23	0%	346	340
Bethune-Cookman	MEAC	9	21	0%	347	346
St. Francis (NY)	Northeast	4	27	0%	348	314
Florida A&M	MEAC	7	22	0%	349	350
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	3	28	0%	350	336
Alabama A&M	SWAC	2	26	0%	351	345

 

South

The first round favorites look pretty safe in the South, with the notable exceptions of Arizona as a tossup against the Vanderbilt/Wichita State winner, and Connecticut as a clear upset winner against the “favored” 8-seeded Colorado. From there the bottom half of this bracket is up for grabs, and Maryland/California should be close as well.

Kansas is as close to a favorite as there is in this tournament, but they were paired against a brutally strong #2 in Villanova. Either is a very reasonable pick to win the region.

West

Once again our model shows the #9 seed as the clearly better team, Cincinnati over St. Joe’s. We also show the #10 seed VCU as an expected upset. If you’re looking for a #12 seed Cinderella, Yale could surprise against Baylor. In the second round, top-seed Oregon is a tossup to beat the 8/9 winner and if they do they’ll likely fall in the next game.

This region is as wide open as it gets. We’ve got Oklahoma as the most likely team to advance, but Duke, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, and even the top seed Oregon are all very reasonable picks.

East

The two clearest first round upset chances here are the 11-seeded Michigan/Tulsa winner against 6-seed Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh against 7-seed Wisconsin. 2-seed Xavier is in trouble in the 2nd round against the Pittsburgh/Wisconsin winner.

North Carolina and West Virginia are most likely to win this region, though the Kentucky/Indiana winner could give UNC a scare.

Midwest

We like Gonzaga to exceed their seed and upset 6-seed Seton Hall, and even though Syracuse is getting a lot of heat for getting in the tournament, our model has them upsetting 7-seed Dayton.

We like Michigan State to win this region over Virginia with Purdue as a potential darkhorse.

Final Four

Our model has no clear favorite, with Michigan State, Kansas, and Virginia as the top of a bunched pack. Villanova, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and North Carolina all have reasonable chances to win the championship this year.

So who do you pick? Any of those are fine choices. This isn’t a bad year to try a #2 seed in Michigan State in many pools. If you need a deep longshot, 5-seed Purdue is the most likely high-seed to surprise.

 

Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2016 men’s tournament.

South
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Kansas 97.9% Austin Peay 2.1%	Kansas 70.5% Connecticut 25.2% Colorado 4.2%	Kansas 50.3% Maryland 20.8% Connecticut 14.0% California 11.6% Hawaii 1.6% Colorado 1.3%	Kansas 31.7% Villanova 20.7% Miami (Fla.) 11.8% Maryland 9.6% Connecticut 6.4% Iowa 5.9% California 4.6% Arizona 4.6% Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 3.7%
Connecticut 74.0% Colorado 26.0%
Maryland 84.4% South Dakota State 15.6%	Maryland 52.6% California 34.5% Hawaii 9.1% South Dakota State 3.8%
California 70.3% Hawaii 29.7%
Arizona 51.8% Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 48.2%	Miami (Fla.) 50.9% Arizona 25.1% Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 22.5% Buffalo 1.4%	Villanova 38.6% Miami (Fla.) 25.2% Iowa 14.5% Arizona 10.9% Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 9.5% Temple 1.0%
Miami (Fla.) 89.5% Buffalo 10.5%
Iowa 76.1% Temple 23.9%	Villanova 63.6% Iowa 30.7% Temple 4.6% North Carolina-Asheville 1.1%
Villanova 93.0% North Carolina-Asheville 7.0%

West
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Oregon 96.6% HolyCross/Southern 3.4%	Oregon 50.5% Cincinnati 41.3% Saint Joseph’s 8.1%	Duke 27.8% Oregon 25.6% Cincinnati 22.7% Baylor 16.3% Yale 4.3% Saint Joseph’s 2.4%	Oklahoma 23.9% Duke 15.6% Oregon 13.1% Texas A&M 13.0% Cincinnati 12.5% Baylor 8.3% Texas 6.5% Virginia Commonwealth 3.4% Yale 1.6%
Cincinnati 74.2% Saint Joseph’s 25.8%
Baylor 65.3% Yale 34.7%	Duke 50.5% Baylor 32.9% Yale 12.6% North Carolina-Wilmington 4.0%
Duke 83.3% North Carolina-Wilmington 16.7%
Texas 70.8% Northern Iowa 29.2%	Texas A&M 54.7% Texas 34.7% Northern Iowa 8.8% Green Bay 1.8%	Oklahoma 42.2% Texas A&M 27.2% Texas 15.5% Virginia Commonwealth 9.6% Oregon State 2.4% Northern Iowa 2.3%
Texas A&M 89.4% Green Bay 10.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 65.1% Oregon State 34.9%	Oklahoma 66.5% Virginia Commonwealth 22.5% Oregon State 8.2% Cal State Bakersfield 2.8%
Oklahoma 89.4% Cal State Bakersfield 10.6%

East
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
North Carolina 95.3% FGCU/F Dickinson 4.7%	North Carolina 71.9% Providence 14.1% Southern California 13.4%	North Carolina 40.3% Indiana 26.9% Kentucky 23.3% Providence 4.3% Southern California 4.0%	North Carolina 23.9% West Virginia 22.8% Indiana 15.0% Kentucky 12.8% Xavier 9.0% Wisconsin 3.8% Pittsburgh 3.3% Michigan/Tulsa 3.2% Notre Dame 2.9% Providence 1.4% Southern California 1.3%
Providence 50.8% Southern California 49.2%
Indiana 87.9% Chattanooga 12.1%	Indiana 49.9% Kentucky 44.1% Stony Brook 3.9% Chattanooga 2.1%
Kentucky 82.3% Stony Brook 17.7%
Michigan/Tulsa 50.8% Notre Dame 49.2%	West Virginia 58.9% Michigan/Tulsa 18.3% Notre Dame 17.4% Stephen F. Austin 5.3%	West Virginia 40.2% Xavier 21.5% Wisconsin 10.3% Pittsburgh 9.3% Michigan/Tulsa 8.7% Notre Dame 8.2% Stephen F. Austin 1.6%
West Virginia 83.5% Stephen F. Austin 16.5%
Wisconsin 51.3% Pittsburgh 48.7%	Xavier 48.2% Wisconsin 25.7% Pittsburgh 23.9% Weber State 2.1%
Xavier 86.9% Weber State 13.1%

Midwest
First Round	Second Round	Regional Semifinals	Regional Champion
Virginia 98.9% Hampton 1.1%	Virginia 75.2% Butler 14.3% Texas Tech 10.4%	Virginia 45.2% Purdue 32.9% Iowa State 11.3% Butler 5.1% Texas Tech 3.3% Arkansas-Little Rock 1.4%	Michigan State 37.3% Virginia 24.7% Purdue 17.6% Iowa State 4.2% Gonzaga 3.7% Utah 3.7% Seton Hall 2.9% Syracuse 1.9% Butler 1.6%
Butler 54.8% Texas Tech 45.2%
Purdue 82.6% Arkansas-Little Rock 17.4%	Purdue 59.7% Iowa State 29.6% Arkansas-Little Rock 6.5% Iona 4.2%
Iowa State 76.4% Iona 23.6%
Gonzaga 52.3% Seton Hall 47.7%	Utah 37.5% Gonzaga 31.3% Seton Hall 27.5% Fresno State 3.7%	Michigan State 59.7% Utah 11.1% Gonzaga 10.2% Seton Hall 8.5% Syracuse 6.2% Dayton 3.6%
Utah 79.7% Fresno State 20.3%
Syracuse 55.9% Dayton 44.1%	Michigan State 76.9% Syracuse 13.2% Dayton 8.8% Middle Tennessee 1.1%
Michigan State 94.5% Middle Tennessee 5.5%

Final Four
Semifinals	National Championship Game
Kansas 21.4% Villanova 12.8% Oklahoma 11.5% Duke 7.1% Miami (Fla.) 6.5% Cincinnati 5.6% Oregon 5.4% Texas A&M 5.1% Maryland 4.9% Baylor 3.4% Connecticut 3.2% Iowa 2.8% Arizona 2.2% Texas 2.2% California 2.1% Vanderbilt/WichitaSt 1.7%	Michigan State 16.2% Kansas 12.2% Virginia 8.9% Villanova 6.5% West Virginia 6.3% Purdue 6.0% North Carolina 6.0% Oklahoma 5.2% Indiana 3.3% Duke 3.0% Miami (Fla.) 2.8% Kentucky 2.7% Cincinnati 2.4% Oregon 2.0% Maryland 2.0% Texas A&M 1.8% Xavier 1.3% Connecticut 1.3% Baylor 1.3% Iowa 1.1%
Michigan State 25.1% Virginia 14.9% West Virginia 11.1% North Carolina 11.1% Purdue 10.4% Indiana 6.5% Kentucky 5.4% Xavier 3.1% Iowa State 1.7% Gonzaga 1.5% Utah 1.4% Wisconsin 1.2% Seton Hall 1.1%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.

 

Here’s how NCAA men’s college basketball Division I tournament teams have performed by seed, going back to 1985 (the first year of the 64-team bracket).

Seed	Wins per Round
	Round 1	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Final Four	National Championship
1	120 (100.0%)	104 (86.7%)	82 (68.3%)	48 (40.0%)	27 (22.5%)	18 (15.0%)
2	113 (94.2%)	77 (64.2%)	56 (46.7%)	26 (21.7%)	12 (10.0%)	4 (3.3%)
3	102 (85.0%)	60 (50.0%)	30 (25.0%)	14 (11.7%)	9 (7.5%)	4 (3.3%)
4	95 (79.2%)	54 (45.0%)	19 (15.8%)	13 (10.8%)	3 (2.5%)	1 (0.8%)
5	76 (63.3%)	39 (32.5%)	8 (6.7%)	6 (5.0%)	3 (2.5%)
6	79 (65.8%)	41 (34.2%)	13 (10.8%)	3 (2.5%)	2 (1.7%)	1 (0.8%)
7	73 (60.8%)	20 (16.7%)	8 (6.7%)	1 (0.8%)	1 (0.8%)	1 (0.8%)
8	59 (49.2%)	11 (9.2%)	8 (6.7%)	5 (4.2%)	3 (2.5%)	1 (0.8%)
9	61 (50.8%)	5 (4.2%)	2 (1.7%)	1 (0.8%)
10	47 (39.2%)	23 (19.2%)	7 (5.8%)
11	41 (34.2%)	17 (14.2%)	6 (5.0%)	3 (2.5%)
12	44 (36.7%)	20 (16.7%)	1 (0.8%)
13	25 (20.8%)	6 (5.0%)
14	18 (15.0%)	2 (1.7%)
15	7 (5.8%)	1 (0.8%)
16

The 5, 6, and 7 seeds are virtually identical in the first round

Think of a bell curve with the top seeds and bottom seeds on either extreme. This leaves a fat middle section of teams that are very similar. 5, 6, and 7 seeds have won 76, 79, and 73 of their first round games respectively, making them indistinguishable based on seed alone.

Even though 5 and 12 seeds seem pretty far apart, they’re both in the fat middle of the bell curve. Much ado is made each year when a 12 seed upsets a 5 seed, but we shouldn’t think of it as particularly remarkable — it happens more than a third of the time and at about the same rate 10s upset 7s.

8 vs 9 is a toss-up in the first round but 8s have legs

In the first round, 9 seeds have actually won marginally more than half the time (61-59). In the second round, however, 8 seeds upset the 1 seeds much more frequently than 9 seeds (11 vs. 5 times). 8 seeds progress very well from there, taking advantage of a 1 seed’s relatively easy path to the Final Four.

Why this discrepancy, given that 8 and 9 seeds are so similar in every other way? Perhaps there’s a psychological factor — the 9 seeds have already exceeded expectations by notching an upset, whereas the 8 seeds were “supposed” to win and haven’t proven themselves yet. Perhaps this is just statistical noise, given the relative rarity of upsets over a 1 seed in the second round (13.3%). It’s worth keeping an eye on.

3 and 4 seeds have trouble making the Sweet 16

The 3 and 4 seeds do very well in the first round, winning about 80% or more of the time. But the second round is a different story, where they win barely half the games in which they appear — their win percentages drop to 58.8% and 56.8% respectively.

Seeds don’t matter past the Elite Eight

There’s a point somewhere around the 3rd round where seeds cease to matter. You’ll notice that the number of wins for each team is roughly half in each succeeding round after about the 3rd round.

…but 1 seeds win championship games

The one clear exception to this rule is 1 seeds in championship games. Of the 27 times a 1 seed has made it to the championship game, 18 times (66.7%) they have won. Note that this includes five championship matchups that pitted a 1 seed against another 1 seed — excluding these, 1 seeds have won 13 of 17 matchups against other seeds.