Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2018 men’s tournament.
| First Round |
Second Round |
Regional Semifinals |
Regional Champion |
| Virginia |
98.1% |
| Maryland-Baltimore County |
1.9% |
|
| Virginia |
91.4% |
| Creighton |
5.6% |
| Kansas State |
2.6% |
|
| Virginia |
84.5% |
| Arizona |
4.2% |
| Kentucky |
4.1% |
| Creighton |
3.0% |
| Davidson |
2.0% |
| Buffalo |
1.2% |
| Kansas State |
1.1% |
|
| Virginia |
66.3% |
| Cincinnati |
24.3% |
| Tennessee |
2.1% |
| Arizona |
1.3% |
| Kentucky |
1.3% |
|
| Creighton |
60.7% |
| Kansas State |
39.3% |
|
| Kentucky |
58.1% |
| Davidson |
41.9% |
|
| Arizona |
33.5% |
| Kentucky |
32.3% |
| Davidson |
19.9% |
| Buffalo |
14.3% |
|
| Arizona |
63.5% |
| Buffalo |
36.5% |
|
| Miami (Fla.) |
51.4% |
| Loyola (Ill.) |
48.6% |
|
| Tennessee |
45.5% |
| Miami (Fla.) |
24.9% |
| Loyola (Ill.) |
23.1% |
| Wright State |
6.5% |
|
| Cincinnati |
64.8% |
| Tennessee |
12.8% |
| Nevada |
6.7% |
| Miami (Fla.) |
5.7% |
| Loyola (Ill.) |
5.1% |
| Texas |
3.2% |
|
| Tennessee |
77.6% |
| Wright State |
22.4% |
|
|
| Cincinnati |
77.4% |
| Nevada |
12.7% |
| Texas |
7.2% |
| Georgia State |
2.7% |
|
| Cincinnati |
91.7% |
| Georgia State |
8.3% |
|
| First Round |
Second Round |
Regional Semifinals |
Regional Champion |
| Xavier |
90.1% |
| Playin Winner |
9.9% |
|
| Xavier |
58.3% |
| Florida State |
22.2% |
| Missouri |
17.9% |
| Playin Winner |
1.7% |
|
| Gonzaga |
33.8% |
| Xavier |
27.4% |
| Ohio State |
22.0% |
| Florida State |
7.6% |
| Missouri |
5.7% |
| North Carolina-Greensboro |
1.9% |
| South Dakota State |
1.4% |
|
| North Carolina |
20.6% |
| Gonzaga |
19.8% |
| Xavier |
13.4% |
| Michigan |
13.4% |
| Ohio State |
11.3% |
| Houston |
10.2% |
| Texas A&M |
2.9% |
| Florida State |
2.8% |
| Missouri |
1.9% |
| San Diego State |
1.6% |
|
| Florida State |
53.5% |
| Missouri |
46.5% |
|
| Ohio State |
78.0% |
| South Dakota State |
22.0% |
|
| Gonzaga |
51.3% |
| Ohio State |
37.8% |
| North Carolina-Greensboro |
5.9% |
| South Dakota State |
5.0% |
|
| Gonzaga |
80.8% |
| North Carolina-Greensboro |
19.2% |
|
| Houston |
67.4% |
| San Diego State |
32.6% |
|
| Michigan |
45.0% |
| Houston |
36.6% |
| San Diego State |
12.3% |
| Montana |
6.1% |
|
| North Carolina |
37.3% |
| Michigan |
25.2% |
| Houston |
19.9% |
| Texas A&M |
8.0% |
| San Diego State |
4.6% |
| Providence |
2.9% |
| Montana |
1.7% |
|
| Michigan |
78.3% |
| Montana |
21.7% |
|
| Texas A&M |
61.0% |
| Providence |
39.0% |
|
| North Carolina |
65.5% |
| Texas A&M |
21.6% |
| Providence |
10.5% |
| Lipscomb |
2.4% |
|
| North Carolina |
89.9% |
| Lipscomb |
10.1% |
|
| First Round |
Second Round |
Regional Semifinals |
Regional Champion |
| Villanova |
96.3% |
| Playin Winner |
3.7% |
|
| Villanova |
84.3% |
| Virginia Tech |
10.4% |
| Alabama |
4.4% |
|
| Villanova |
68.2% |
| West Virginia |
11.9% |
| Wichita State |
11.5% |
| Virginia Tech |
4.5% |
| Murray State |
2.0% |
| Alabama |
1.4% |
|
| Purdue |
42.7% |
| Villanova |
40.3% |
| Texas Tech |
4.8% |
| West Virginia |
3.9% |
| Wichita State |
3.5% |
| Florida |
1.3% |
| Virginia Tech |
1.0% |
|
| Virginia Tech |
61.9% |
| Alabama |
38.1% |
|
| West Virginia |
69.8% |
| Murray State |
30.2% |
|
| Wichita State |
42.5% |
| West Virginia |
41.0% |
| Murray State |
11.9% |
| Marshall |
4.6% |
|
| Wichita State |
79.9% |
| Marshall |
20.1% |
|
| Florida |
59.6% |
| Playin Winner |
40.4% |
|
| Texas Tech |
52.2% |
| Florida |
26.4% |
| Playin Winner |
14.4% |
| Stephen F. Austin |
7.0% |
|
| Purdue |
70.4% |
| Texas Tech |
14.7% |
| Florida |
5.3% |
| Butler |
4.1% |
| Arkansas |
2.4% |
| Playin Winner |
2.2% |
|
| Texas Tech |
79.2% |
| Stephen F. Austin |
20.8% |
|
| Butler |
55.7% |
| Arkansas |
44.3% |
|
| Purdue |
84.6% |
| Butler |
8.9% |
| Arkansas |
5.9% |
|
| Purdue |
96.7% |
| Cal State Fullerton |
3.3% |
|
| First Round |
Second Round |
Regional Semifinals |
Regional Champion |
| Kansas |
84.9% |
| Pennsylvania |
15.1% |
|
| Kansas |
59.8% |
| Seton Hall |
18.4% |
| North Carolina State |
17.3% |
| Pennsylvania |
4.5% |
|
| Kansas |
39.6% |
| Auburn |
19.3% |
| Clemson |
16.5% |
| Seton Hall |
8.5% |
| North Carolina State |
7.8% |
| New Mexico State |
5.7% |
| Charleston |
1.3% |
| Pennsylvania |
1.2% |
|
| Duke |
42.0% |
| Michigan State |
30.3% |
| Kansas |
12.5% |
| Auburn |
4.2% |
| Clemson |
3.6% |
| Texas Christian |
1.6% |
| Seton Hall |
1.5% |
| North Carolina State |
1.3% |
|
| Seton Hall |
50.9% |
| North Carolina State |
49.1% |
|
| Clemson |
62.8% |
| New Mexico State |
37.2% |
|
| Auburn |
42.0% |
| Clemson |
35.5% |
| New Mexico State |
16.5% |
| Charleston |
6.0% |
|
| Auburn |
77.2% |
| Charleston |
22.8% |
|
| Texas Christian |
59.6% |
| Playin Winner |
40.4% |
|
| Michigan State |
75.4% |
| Texas Christian |
14.3% |
| Playin Winner |
7.4% |
| Bucknell |
2.9% |
|
| Duke |
52.2% |
| Michigan State |
39.2% |
| Texas Christian |
3.4% |
| Rhode Island |
2.1% |
| Playin Winner |
1.4% |
| Oklahoma |
1.2% |
|
| Michigan State |
91.1% |
| Bucknell |
8.9% |
|
| Rhode Island |
55.6% |
| Oklahoma |
44.4% |
|
| Duke |
83.4% |
| Rhode Island |
8.9% |
| Oklahoma |
6.0% |
| Iona |
1.6% |
|
|
| Semifinals
| National Championship Game
|
| Virginia |
58.1% |
| Cincinnati |
18.2% |
| Gonzaga |
4.8% |
| North Carolina |
4.6% |
| Michigan |
2.8% |
| Xavier |
2.5% |
| Ohio State |
2.2% |
| Houston |
2.0% |
|
| Virginia |
41.0% |
| Purdue |
12.5% |
| Villanova |
11.6% |
| Duke |
10.6% |
| Cincinnati |
9.1% |
| Michigan State |
6.5% |
| Gonzaga |
1.5% |
| North Carolina |
1.3% |
| Kansas |
1.0% |
|
| Purdue |
26.0% |
| Villanova |
24.3% |
| Duke |
22.8% |
| Michigan State |
15.1% |
| Kansas |
3.9% |
| Texas Tech |
1.5% |
| West Virginia |
1.3% |
| Wichita State |
1.0% |
|
These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.
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