2017 Odds of Advancing

Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2017 men’s tournament.

East
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Villanova 98.3%
Playin Winner 1.7%
Villanova 85.0%
Wisconsin 11.1%
Virginia Tech 3.7%
Villanova 61.3%
Virginia 24.2%
Florida 9.2%
Wisconsin 3.8%
Villanova 46.4%
Duke 19.2%
Virginia 14.8%
Baylor 6.8%
Southern Methodist 5.3%
Florida 4.4%
Wisconsin 1.5%
Wisconsin 64.7%
Virginia Tech 35.3%
Virginia 88.0%
North Carolina-Wilmington 12.0%
Virginia 60.8%
Florida 33.4%
North Carolina-Wilmington 3.1%
East Tennessee State 2.7%
Florida 82.0%
East Tennessee State 18.0%
Southern Methodist 75.4%
Playin Winner 24.6%
Baylor 48.1%
Southern Methodist 40.6%
Playin Winner 7.3%
New Mexico State 4.0%
Duke 48.5%
Baylor 22.8%
Southern Methodist 18.5%
Marquette 4.7%
South Carolina 2.8%
Playin Winner 1.7%
Baylor 83.0%
New Mexico State 17.0%
Marquette 55.8%
South Carolina 44.2%
Duke 74.9%
Marquette 13.9%
South Carolina 9.5%
Troy 1.7%
Duke 93.0%
Troy 7.0%

West
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Gonzaga 98.6%
South Dakota State 1.4%
Gonzaga 92.9%
Northwestern 3.6%
Vanderbilt 3.3%
Gonzaga 72.9%
West Virginia 21.2%
Notre Dame 4.1%
Gonzaga 62.5%
West Virginia 14.5%
Saint Mary’s 10.3%
Florida State 6.5%
Arizona 2.8%
Notre Dame 1.9%
Northwestern 51.0%
Vanderbilt 49.0%
Notre Dame 75.4%
Princeton 24.6%
West Virginia 69.7%
Notre Dame 24.8%
Princeton 3.8%
Bucknell 1.7%
West Virginia 92.4%
Bucknell 7.6%
Xavier 50.9%
Maryland 49.1%
Florida State 65.7%
Xavier 15.7%
Maryland 14.8%
Florida Gulf Coast 3.8%
Saint Mary’s 39.0%
Florida State 32.5%
Arizona 17.8%
Xavier 4.1%
Maryland 3.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 2.2%
Florida State 87.5%
Florida Gulf Coast 12.5%
Saint Mary’s 82.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 18.0%
Saint Mary’s 57.7%
Arizona 34.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 6.5%
North Dakota 1.3%
Arizona 87.2%
North Dakota 12.8%

Midwest
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Kansas 92.5%
Playin Winner 7.5%
Kansas 64.8%
Miami (Fla.) 18.7%
Michigan State 15.4%
Playin Winner 1.2%
Kansas 35.9%
Purdue 29.2%
Iowa State 18.0%
Miami (Fla.) 6.9%
Michigan State 5.3%
Nevada 2.6%
Vermont 2.0%
Louisville 38.5%
Kansas 15.6%
Oregon 13.5%
Purdue 13.0%
Iowa State 6.8%
Michigan 3.5%
Oklahoma State 2.4%
Miami (Fla.) 1.9%
Creighton 1.8%
Michigan State 1.3%
Miami (Fla.) 53.1%
Michigan State 46.9%
Iowa State 71.2%
Nevada 28.8%
Purdue 49.7%
Iowa State 34.9%
Nevada 8.5%
Vermont 6.9%
Purdue 78.9%
Vermont 21.1%
Creighton 56.2%
Rhode Island 43.8%
Oregon 62.6%
Creighton 20.6%
Rhode Island 13.8%
Iona 3.0%
Louisville 54.1%
Oregon 24.9%
Michigan 7.6%
Oklahoma State 5.5%
Creighton 4.9%
Rhode Island 2.7%
Oregon 88.1%
Iona 11.9%
Michigan 53.8%
Oklahoma State 46.2%
Louisville 72.9%
Michigan 15.0%
Oklahoma State 11.6%
Louisville 96.2%
Jacksonville State 3.8%

South
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
North Carolina 97.0%
Texas Southern 3.0%
North Carolina 80.8%
Arkansas 10.9%
Seton Hall 8.0%
North Carolina 59.1%
Butler 20.3%
Minnesota 9.1%
Arkansas 4.2%
Middle Tennessee 3.9%
Seton Hall 2.7%
North Carolina 35.9%
Wichita State 15.9%
Kentucky 15.1%
Cincinnati 9.0%
Butler 8.6%
UCLA 7.4%
Minnesota 3.1%
Playin Winner 1.5%
Arkansas 1.1%
Middle Tennessee 1.0%
Arkansas 54.4%
Seton Hall 45.6%
Minnesota 59.6%
Middle Tennessee 40.4%
Butler 51.4%
Minnesota 28.3%
Middle Tennessee 15.8%
Winthrop 4.5%
Butler 82.7%
Winthrop 17.3%
Cincinnati 66.7%
Playin Winner 33.3%
UCLA 42.4%
Cincinnati 40.4%
Playin Winner 14.9%
Kent State 2.3%
Kentucky 28.6%
Wichita State 28.5%
Cincinnati 18.6%
UCLA 17.2%
Playin Winner 4.5%
Dayton 2.1%
UCLA 85.1%
Kent State 14.9%
Wichita State 78.2%
Dayton 21.8%
Kentucky 47.5%
Wichita State 44.9%
Dayton 6.4%
Northern Kentucky 1.2%
Kentucky 90.0%
Northern Kentucky 10.0%

Final Four
Semifinals National Championship Game
Gonzaga 45.8%
Villanova 23.1%
West Virginia 7.3%
Duke 6.2%
Virginia 5.2%
Saint Mary’s 4.3%
Florida State 2.2%
Baylor 1.7%
Southern Methodist 1.2%
Florida 1.1%
Gonzaga 37.9%
Villanova 17.1%
Louisville 9.7%
North Carolina 6.0%
West Virginia 4.7%
Duke 3.5%
Virginia 3.1%
Wichita State 2.3%
Saint Mary’s 2.3%
Kansas 1.8%
Kentucky 1.7%
Purdue 1.6%
Oregon 1.6%
Louisville 25.5%
North Carolina 19.7%
Wichita State 8.2%
Kansas 7.6%
Kentucky 7.1%
Oregon 6.5%
Purdue 6.5%
Cincinnati 3.9%
Butler 3.2%
Iowa State 2.9%
UCLA 2.8%
Michigan 1.4%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



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