2018 Sweet 16 Odds of Advancing

Here are our updated odds of each team advancing from the Sweet 16 through the championship game.

Regional Semis Regional Champion Semifinals Championship
Kentucky 62.6%
Kansas State 37.4%
Kentucky 35.3%
Nevada 28.1%
Loyola (Ill.) 20.5%
Kansas State 16.2%
Gonzaga 30.1%
Michigan 23.7%
Kentucky 14.4%
Nevada 10.4%
Loyola (Ill.) 6.7%
Florida State 5.2%
Kansas State 4.8%
Texas A&M 4.7%
Duke 32.3%
Villanova 25.4%
Purdue 19.4%
Gonzaga 7.4%
Michigan 5.2%
Kansas 2.5%
Kentucky 2.2%
Nevada 1.4%
Loyola (Ill.) 0.7%
West Virginia 0.7%
Florida State 0.6%
Texas Tech 0.6%
Texas A&M 0.5%
Clemson 0.5%
Kansas State 0.5%
Syracuse 0.1%
Nevada 55.2%
Loyola (Ill.) 44.8%
Gonzaga 71.6%
Florida State 28.4%
Gonzaga 43.1%
Michigan 36.0%
Florida State 10.8%
Texas A&M 10.1%
Michigan 69.4%
Texas A&M 30.6%
Villanova 82.5%
West Virginia 17.5%
Villanova 49.5%
Purdue 41.7%
West Virginia 4.6%
Texas Tech 4.2%
Duke 38.7%
Villanova 30.0%
Purdue 23.6%
Kansas 4.1%
West Virginia 1.3%
Texas Tech 1.1%
Clemson 1.1%
Syracuse 0.2%
Purdue 80.9%
Texas Tech 19.1%
Kansas 63.3%
Clemson 36.7%
Duke 74.2%
Kansas 16.8%
Clemson 6.7%
Syracuse 2.3%
Duke 91.8%
Syracuse 8.2%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



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2018 Tournament Overview

South

This tough region has a number of upset opportunities. 11 seed Loyola and 12 seed Davidson in particular have chances to bust a lot of brackets in this region.

Virginia is as close as this tournament has to a clear favorite with Cincinnati as the most plausible obstacle.

West

No obvious upset opportunities present themselves in this region, excepting 9 seed Florida State as the slight favorite to win their first game.

The later rounds will be much more interesting in the West. 4 seed Gonzaga and 2 seed North Carolina have the best chances to advance, with Xavier, Michigan, Ohio State, and even Houston with reasonable chances to make the Final Four.

East

10 seed Butler headlines the first round upset chances in the East. In the second round, our model likes Texas Tech as a significant favorite to make the Sweet 16.

Our model has Villanova and Purdue as both roughly equally likely to win the region and advance.

Midwest

12 seed New Mexico State has a real chance to beat Clemson in the first round, and TCU will have its hands full with Syracuse if they win their play-in game.

We have both Duke and Michigan State as more likely to advance than top seed Kansas.

Final Four

The East/Midwest pairing is the most interesting matchup here; Purdue, Villanova, Duke, and Michigan State are all reasonable choices to advance to the championship game.

BracketAdvice has Virginia as a clear favorite to crush whoever advances in the West region and then win its first national championship.



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2018 Odds of Advancing

Here are our odds of each team advancing through each round of the 2018 men’s tournament.

South
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Virginia 98.1%
Maryland-Baltimore County 1.9%
Virginia 91.4%
Creighton 5.6%
Kansas State 2.6%
Virginia 84.5%
Arizona 4.2%
Kentucky 4.1%
Creighton 3.0%
Davidson 2.0%
Buffalo 1.2%
Kansas State 1.1%
Virginia 66.3%
Cincinnati 24.3%
Tennessee 2.1%
Arizona 1.3%
Kentucky 1.3%
Creighton 60.7%
Kansas State 39.3%
Kentucky 58.1%
Davidson 41.9%
Arizona 33.5%
Kentucky 32.3%
Davidson 19.9%
Buffalo 14.3%
Arizona 63.5%
Buffalo 36.5%
Miami (Fla.) 51.4%
Loyola (Ill.) 48.6%
Tennessee 45.5%
Miami (Fla.) 24.9%
Loyola (Ill.) 23.1%
Wright State 6.5%
Cincinnati 64.8%
Tennessee 12.8%
Nevada 6.7%
Miami (Fla.) 5.7%
Loyola (Ill.) 5.1%
Texas 3.2%
Tennessee 77.6%
Wright State 22.4%
Nevada 58.3%
Texas 41.7%
Cincinnati 77.4%
Nevada 12.7%
Texas 7.2%
Georgia State 2.7%
Cincinnati 91.7%
Georgia State 8.3%

West
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Xavier 90.1%
Playin Winner 9.9%
Xavier 58.3%
Florida State 22.2%
Missouri 17.9%
Playin Winner 1.7%
Gonzaga 33.8%
Xavier 27.4%
Ohio State 22.0%
Florida State 7.6%
Missouri 5.7%
North Carolina-Greensboro 1.9%
South Dakota State 1.4%
North Carolina 20.6%
Gonzaga 19.8%
Xavier 13.4%
Michigan 13.4%
Ohio State 11.3%
Houston 10.2%
Texas A&M 2.9%
Florida State 2.8%
Missouri 1.9%
San Diego State 1.6%
Florida State 53.5%
Missouri 46.5%
Ohio State 78.0%
South Dakota State 22.0%
Gonzaga 51.3%
Ohio State 37.8%
North Carolina-Greensboro 5.9%
South Dakota State 5.0%
Gonzaga 80.8%
North Carolina-Greensboro 19.2%
Houston 67.4%
San Diego State 32.6%
Michigan 45.0%
Houston 36.6%
San Diego State 12.3%
Montana 6.1%
North Carolina 37.3%
Michigan 25.2%
Houston 19.9%
Texas A&M 8.0%
San Diego State 4.6%
Providence 2.9%
Montana 1.7%
Michigan 78.3%
Montana 21.7%
Texas A&M 61.0%
Providence 39.0%
North Carolina 65.5%
Texas A&M 21.6%
Providence 10.5%
Lipscomb 2.4%
North Carolina 89.9%
Lipscomb 10.1%

East
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Villanova 96.3%
Playin Winner 3.7%
Villanova 84.3%
Virginia Tech 10.4%
Alabama 4.4%
Villanova 68.2%
West Virginia 11.9%
Wichita State 11.5%
Virginia Tech 4.5%
Murray State 2.0%
Alabama 1.4%
Purdue 42.7%
Villanova 40.3%
Texas Tech 4.8%
West Virginia 3.9%
Wichita State 3.5%
Florida 1.3%
Virginia Tech 1.0%
Virginia Tech 61.9%
Alabama 38.1%
West Virginia 69.8%
Murray State 30.2%
Wichita State 42.5%
West Virginia 41.0%
Murray State 11.9%
Marshall 4.6%
Wichita State 79.9%
Marshall 20.1%
Florida 59.6%
Playin Winner 40.4%
Texas Tech 52.2%
Florida 26.4%
Playin Winner 14.4%
Stephen F. Austin 7.0%
Purdue 70.4%
Texas Tech 14.7%
Florida 5.3%
Butler 4.1%
Arkansas 2.4%
Playin Winner 2.2%
Texas Tech 79.2%
Stephen F. Austin 20.8%
Butler 55.7%
Arkansas 44.3%
Purdue 84.6%
Butler 8.9%
Arkansas 5.9%
Purdue 96.7%
Cal State Fullerton 3.3%

Midwest
First Round Second Round Regional Semifinals Regional Champion
Kansas 84.9%
Pennsylvania 15.1%
Kansas 59.8%
Seton Hall 18.4%
North Carolina State 17.3%
Pennsylvania 4.5%
Kansas 39.6%
Auburn 19.3%
Clemson 16.5%
Seton Hall 8.5%
North Carolina State 7.8%
New Mexico State 5.7%
Charleston 1.3%
Pennsylvania 1.2%
Duke 42.0%
Michigan State 30.3%
Kansas 12.5%
Auburn 4.2%
Clemson 3.6%
Texas Christian 1.6%
Seton Hall 1.5%
North Carolina State 1.3%
Seton Hall 50.9%
North Carolina State 49.1%
Clemson 62.8%
New Mexico State 37.2%
Auburn 42.0%
Clemson 35.5%
New Mexico State 16.5%
Charleston 6.0%
Auburn 77.2%
Charleston 22.8%
Texas Christian 59.6%
Playin Winner 40.4%
Michigan State 75.4%
Texas Christian 14.3%
Playin Winner 7.4%
Bucknell 2.9%
Duke 52.2%
Michigan State 39.2%
Texas Christian 3.4%
Rhode Island 2.1%
Playin Winner 1.4%
Oklahoma 1.2%
Michigan State 91.1%
Bucknell 8.9%
Rhode Island 55.6%
Oklahoma 44.4%
Duke 83.4%
Rhode Island 8.9%
Oklahoma 6.0%
Iona 1.6%
Duke 94.6%
Iona 5.4%

Final Four
Semifinals National Championship Game
Virginia 58.1%
Cincinnati 18.2%
Gonzaga 4.8%
North Carolina 4.6%
Michigan 2.8%
Xavier 2.5%
Ohio State 2.2%
Houston 2.0%
Virginia 41.0%
Purdue 12.5%
Villanova 11.6%
Duke 10.6%
Cincinnati 9.1%
Michigan State 6.5%
Gonzaga 1.5%
North Carolina 1.3%
Kansas 1.0%
Purdue 26.0%
Villanova 24.3%
Duke 22.8%
Michigan State 15.1%
Kansas 3.9%
Texas Tech 1.5%
West Virginia 1.3%
Wichita State 1.0%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



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2017 Sweet 16 Odds

Here are our updated odds of each team advancing from the Sweet 16 through the championship game.

Regional Semis Regional Champion Semifinals Championship
Florida 61.3%
Wisconsin 38.7%
Baylor 39.4%
Florida 35.3%
Wisconsin 18.1%
South Carolina 7.2%
Gonzaga 32.0%
West Virginia 17.6%
Baylor 16.6%
Florida 15.2%
Arizona 9.7%
Wisconsin 6.0%
Xavier 1.5%
South Carolina 1.5%
Gonzaga 22.4%
West Virginia 10.8%
Baylor 8.8%
North Carolina 8.5%
Florida 8.3%
Kansas 7.1%
Kentucky 6.7%
Oregon 5.8%
Purdue 5.4%
Arizona 4.5%
Butler 3.0%
UCLA 2.8%
Wisconsin 2.6%
Michigan 2.5%
Xavier 0.4%
South Carolina 0.4%
Baylor 74.5%
South Carolina 25.5%
Gonzaga 59.3%
West Virginia 40.7%
Gonzaga 45.7%
West Virginia 28.4%
Arizona 20.8%
Xavier 5.2%
Arizona 68.7%
Xavier 31.3%
Kansas 52.8%
Purdue 47.2%
Kansas 29.8%
Oregon 27.8%
Purdue 25.5%
Michigan 16.9%
North Carolina 18.5%
Kansas 15.9%
Kentucky 15.5%
Oregon 13.9%
Purdue 12.8%
Butler 8.3%
UCLA 7.8%
Michigan 7.2%
Oregon 57.9%
Michigan 42.1%
North Carolina 60.0%
Butler 40.0%
North Carolina 33.8%
Kentucky 29.7%
Butler 18.5%
UCLA 17.9%
Kentucky 58.3%
UCLA 41.7%

These predictions were made using a Monte Carlo simulation that simulated the tournament 1 million times using the BracketAdvice ratings to predict game outcomes.



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2017 Tournament Overview

East

This brutal region has 6 of the top 13 teams in the BracketAdvice Ratings.

The first round looks relatively upset free, with the exception of 10-seed Marquette as a good bet to advance. Wisconsin has the best chance of the 8 seeds in any region to advance. In the second round, our model has Virginia as a clear favorite to advance, and Baylor has a fight on its hands against SMU to reach the Sweet 16.

Villanova is the clear favorite to emerge from the gauntlet of excellent teams in the East, with Duke and Virginia as plausible spoilers.

West

Xavier is well positioned to win a 1st round game, and is the highest seed (11) we have listed as the favorite in their first round game. Congratulations to Northwestern for making the field, we have them basically as a tossup to win their first ever NCAA game.

Our model has St. Mary’s as a very strong team and even lists them as a favorite over Pac-10 champ Arizona. Gonzaga has as clear a path as any team in any region to the Final Four, if they can get past a likely matchup against an underrated West Virginia squad in the Elite Eight.

Midwest

This region might provide the best first round games to watch. The 8 Miami / 9 Michigan State, 7 Michigan / 10 Oklahoma State, and the 6 Creighton / 11 Rhode Island games should all be close.

The model likes 2-seed Louisville as a favorite over top seed Kansas, with Oregon and Purdue as potential spoilers.

South

The most “shocking” result here according to BracketAdvice is Wichita State getting a 10 seed. We have them not just advancing in the first round against overmatched Dayton, but as a tossup to beat perennial powerhouse Kentucky in the Sweet 16. Watch out for 12 seed Middle Tennessee State against 5 seed Minnesota, this may be the most likely 12 seed to win their first round game.

We have North Carolina most likely advancing against the Wichita State / Kentucky winner.

Final Four

The bracket is left-heavy this year, with the tough East and West regions clearly stronger than Midwest and South. The “real” championship might be played in the semifinals — we have Gonzaga and Villanova as the top two teams and they’d play each other first. The right half of the bracket is more of a tossup, with Louisville and UNC as the most likely opponents.

BracketAdvice has Gonzaga as a clear favorite over Villanova to advance to and win the 2017 NCAA Championship, even though the teams are pretty evenly matched, because of the relative strength of Villanova’s regional opponents.



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